League TwoMatchday 12
York vs Accrington: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 6d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%O2.554%45%|exp. goals 1.5 : 0.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Accrington3:0YorkL
- York1:5AccringtonL
- Accrington2:2YorkD
- York1:0AccringtonW
- York1:1AccringtonD
York's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.9over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.7under 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.8 : 1.0total 2.8Attack/defence1.5 : 0.9total 2.5
York : AccringtonMost likely scores
Model1-111%1-011%2-110%2-010%0-0—0-16%Attack/defence1-113%1-013%2-19%2-010%0-09%0-18%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-113%1-01-011%1-013%2-12-110%2-19%2-02-010%2-010%0-00-0—0-09%0-10-16%0-18%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 78%77% | 77% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%77% | 77% |
| 1 – York win | 55%50% · Elo 45% | 50%· Elo 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54%45% | 45% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%55% | 55% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 45%50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%23% | 23% |
| X – draw | 23%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%30% | 30% |
| 2 – Accrington win | 22%23% · Elo 28% | 23%· Elo 28% |
Attack vs defence
York attack vs Accrington defenceattack1565defence1485+80 pts to the attack
Accrington attack vs York defenceattack1432defence1520−88 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 7.8 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.565%61%
7.552%45%
8.538%27%
9.527%17%
Each team on its own
Yorkwe expect 5.3, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 59%
Accringtonwe expect 3.0, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 35%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 20.1 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.552%61%
20.545%57%
21.538%51%
22.531%45%
Each team on its own
Yorkwe expect 8.0, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 20%
Accringtonwe expect 12.1, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 64%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 35%
We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.556%58%
3.535%41%
4.518%28%
5.58%11%
Each team on its own
Yorkwe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Accringtonwe expect 1.5, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- York: newly promoted
- York played 3 days ago
- Accrington played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17:11 | 15 |
| 15 | Accrington | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:14 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win York vs Accrington?
York are the favourites. Chances: York win 55%, draw 23%, Accrington win 22%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in York vs Accrington?
Expected goals: 2.8 (York 1.8, Accrington 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is York vs Accrington?
The League Two match kicks off 20 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).