Premier LeagueMatchday 8
Chelsea vs Tottenham: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%59%O2.561%58%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Chelsea2:1TottenhamW
- Tottenham0:1ChelseaW
- Chelsea1:0TottenhamW
- Tottenham3:4ChelseaW
- Chelsea2:0TottenhamW
Chelsea's record: 5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 9.9over 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.1league 3.8over 3.5: 59%Expected yellow cards: 4.1 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 1.2total 3.1Attack/defence1.8 : 1.2total 3.0
Chelsea : TottenhamMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-110%1-07%2-08%1-26%3-1—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-09%2-08%1-26%3-16%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-07%1-09%2-02-08%2-08%1-21-26%1-26%3-13-1—3-16%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%80% | 80% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 76%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%77% | 77% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62%64% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%58% | 58% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61%59% | 59% |
| 1 – Chelsea win | 52%53% · Elo 50% | 53%· Elo 50% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 48%48% | 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%42% | 42% |
| Both teams to score: no | 39%42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38%36% | 36% |
| X – draw | 24%24% · Elo 26% | 24%· Elo 26% |
| 2 – Tottenham win | 24%24% · Elo 24% | 24%· Elo 24% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Chelsea attack vs Tottenham defenceattack1563defence1462+101 pts to the attack
Tottenham attack vs Chelsea defenceattack1454defence1496−42 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%57%
8.543%45%
9.531%32%
10.521%21%
Each team on its own
Chelseawe expect 4.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 41%
Tottenhamwe expect 3.9, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 62%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 23.7 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.569%52%
21.562%46%
22.556%36%
23.549%30%
Each team on its own
Chelseawe expect 10.9, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 52%
Tottenhamwe expect 13.1, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 73%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.562%63%
3.540%43%
4.523%23%
5.511%13%
Each team on its own
Chelseawe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Tottenhamwe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Chelsea concede 2.0 goals per game
- Chelsea matches average 5.4 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Chelsea: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Chelsea: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Tottenham: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15:13 | 10 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3:9 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chelsea vs Tottenham?
Chelsea are the favourites. Chances: Chelsea win 52%, draw 24%, Tottenham win 24%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Tottenham?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Chelsea 1.9, Tottenham 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Tottenham?
The chance that both teams score is 61%.
When is Chelsea vs Tottenham?
The Premier League match kicks off 24 October 2026, 17:30 (UK time).