Premier LeagueMatchday 8
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%61%O2.559%58%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Crystal Palace2:1NewcastleW
- Newcastle2:0Crystal PalaceL
- Newcastle5:0Crystal PalaceL
- Crystal Palace1:1NewcastleD
- Crystal Palace2:0NewcastleW
Crystal Palace's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.9over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.8under 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 44% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.5total 3.0Attack/defence1.6 : 1.5total 3.0
Crystal Palace : NewcastleMost likely scores
Market1-112%2-18%1-28%1-0—0-16%2-26%Attack/defence1-111%2-19%1-28%1-07%0-17%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-111%2-12-18%2-19%1-21-28%1-28%1-01-0—1-07%0-10-16%0-17%2-22-26%2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64%64% | 64% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 63%59% | 59% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 62%65% | 65% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62%61% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59%58% | 58% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41%42% | 42% |
| Both teams to score: no | 38%39% | 39% |
| 2 – Newcastle win | 37%35% · Elo 34% | 35%· Elo 34% |
| 1 – Crystal Palace win | 36%41% · Elo 38% | 41%· Elo 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36%36% | 36% |
| X – draw | 26%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Crystal Palace attack vs Newcastle defenceattack1474defence1454+20 pts to the attack
Newcastle attack vs Crystal Palace defenceattack1530defence1460+70 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 9.0 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.566%57%
8.553%45%
9.541%32%
10.530%21%
Each team on its own
Crystal Palacewe expect 5.0, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 55%
Newcastlewe expect 4.3, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 61%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 19.9 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.543%52%
21.536%46%
22.530%36%
23.524%30%
Each team on its own
Crystal Palacewe expect 9.8, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 39%
Newcastlewe expect 10.0, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 41%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.561%63%
3.539%43%
4.522%23%
5.511%13%
Each team on its own
Crystal Palacewe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 51%
Newcastlewe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Crystal Palace concede 2.1 goals per game
- Crystal Palace matches average only 2.7 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Crystal Palace: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Crystal Palace: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Newcastle: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:13 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9:12 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Crystal Palace win 36%, draw 26%, Newcastle win 37%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Crystal Palace 1.5, Newcastle 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
The chance that both teams score is 62%.
When is Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
The Premier League match kicks off 25 October 2026, 14:00 (UK time).