Premier LeagueMatchday 7
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS63%61%O2.561%58%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Newcastle0:2Aston VillaL
- Aston Villa0:0NewcastleD
- Aston Villa4:1NewcastleL
- Newcastle3:0Aston VillaW
- Aston Villa1:3NewcastleW
Newcastle's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.8over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 1.4total 3.1Attack/defence1.6 : 1.4total 3.0
Newcastle : Aston VillaMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-19%1-28%1-07%2-0—0-1—2-26%Attack/defence1-111%2-19%1-28%1-08%2-07%0-16%2-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%2-12-19%2-19%1-21-28%1-28%1-01-07%1-08%2-02-0—2-07%0-10-1—0-16%2-22-26%2-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%80% | 80% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 69%68% | 68% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63%61% | 61% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62%64% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%58% | 58% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 57%57% | 57% |
| 1 – Newcastle win | 43%43% · Elo 32% | 43%· Elo 32% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38%36% | 36% |
| Both teams to score: no | 37%40% | 40% |
| 2 – Aston Villa win | 31%32% · Elo 40% | 32%· Elo 40% |
| X – draw | 26%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Newcastle attack vs Aston Villa defenceattack1530defence1492+38 pts to the attack
Aston Villa attack vs Newcastle defenceattack1497defence1454+43 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 8.9 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.565%57%
8.552%45%
9.540%32%
10.529%21%
Each team on its own
Newcastlewe expect 4.9, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 52%
Aston Villawe expect 4.4, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 62%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 21.0 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.552%52%
21.545%46%
22.538%36%
23.531%30%
Each team on its own
Newcastlewe expect 10.4, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 46%
Aston Villawe expect 10.6, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 49%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 3.9 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.574%63%
3.554%43%
4.535%23%
5.520%13%
Each team on its own
Newcastlewe expect 2.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 72%
Aston Villawe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Newcastle10 matches in a row with BTTS at homeoverall: 4Went on 57%League 55%Model 63%Record 20
- Newcastle10 matches in a row over 2.5 goals at homeoverall: 4Went on 56%League 57%Model 61%Record 12
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Aston Villa: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Newcastle: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Aston Villa: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:13 | 8 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6:11 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Newcastle are the favourites. Chances: Newcastle win 43%, draw 26%, Aston Villa win 31%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Newcastle 1.7, Aston Villa 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
The chance that both teams score is 63%.
When is Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
The Premier League match kicks off 17 October 2026, 17:30 (UK time).