Premier LeagueMatchday 8
Liverpool vs Brighton: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS63%59%O2.561%56%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Brighton2:1LiverpoolL
- Liverpool2:0BrightonW
- Brighton3:2LiverpoolL
- Liverpool2:1BrightonW
- Liverpool2:1BrightonW
Liverpool's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.9over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.8 : 1.4total 3.2Attack/defence1.6 : 1.3total 2.9
Liverpool : BrightonMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-19%1-07%1-27%2-07%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-08%1-28%2-07%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-07%1-08%1-21-27%1-28%2-02-07%2-07%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 72%68% | 68% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63%59% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%56% | 56% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61%66% | 66% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 53%57% | 57% |
| 1 – Liverpool win | 47%43% · Elo 44% | 43%· Elo 44% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%44% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39%34% | 34% |
| Both teams to score: no | 37%41% | 41% |
| 2 – Brighton win | 28%32% · Elo 28% | 32%· Elo 28% |
| X – draw | 25%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Liverpool attack vs Brighton defenceattack1565defence1540+25 pts to the attack
Brighton attack vs Liverpool defenceattack1575defence1545+30 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 8.4 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.559%57%
8.546%45%
9.534%32%
10.523%21%
Each team on its own
Liverpoolwe expect 4.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 41%
Brightonwe expect 4.2, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 59%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 21.5 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.555%52%
21.548%46%
22.541%36%
23.534%30%
Each team on its own
Liverpoolwe expect 10.3, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 46%
Brightonwe expect 11.2, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 55%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 3.9 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.574%63%
3.555%43%
4.536%23%
5.521%13%
Each team on its own
Liverpoolwe expect 2.2, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 63%
Brightonwe expect 1.8, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 53%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Liverpool: only 11 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 17 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Liverpool: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Brighton: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18:5 | 13 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:7 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Liverpool vs Brighton?
Liverpool are the favourites. Chances: Liverpool win 47%, draw 25%, Brighton win 28%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Brighton?
Expected goals: 3.2 (Liverpool 1.8, Brighton 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Brighton?
The chance that both teams score is 63%.
When is Liverpool vs Brighton?
The Premier League match kicks off 25 October 2026, 14:00 (UK time).