Premier LeagueMatchday 8
Sunderland vs Leeds: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%55%O2.546%50%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Leeds0:1SunderlandW
- Sunderland1:1LeedsD
- Leeds2:1SunderlandL
- Sunderland2:2LeedsD
- Leeds0:0SunderlandD
Sunderland's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.3total 2.5Attack/defence1.4 : 1.3total 2.7
Sunderland : LeedsMost likely scores
Market1-114%0-110%1-09%0-09%2-1—1-28%Attack/defence1-113%0-19%1-09%0-07%2-18%1-28%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%0-10-110%0-19%1-01-09%1-09%0-00-09%0-07%2-12-1—2-18%1-21-28%1-28%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 76%72% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%74% | 74% |
| 12 – no draw | 71%73% | 73% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 65%62% | 62% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 62%64% | 64% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: no | 48%45% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46%50% | 50% |
| 2 – Leeds win | 37%36% · Elo 44% | 36%· Elo 44% |
| 1 – Sunderland win | 34%38% · Elo 28% | 38%· Elo 28% |
| X – draw | 28%27% · Elo 28% | 27%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%26% | 26% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24%28% | 28% |
Attack vs defence
Sunderland attack vs Leeds defenceattack1410defence1477−67 pts to the attack
Leeds attack vs Sunderland defenceattack1458defence1442+16 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.552%57%
8.539%45%
9.527%32%
10.518%21%
Each team on its own
Sunderlandwe expect 4.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 41%
Leedswe expect 3.5, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 22.4 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.561%52%
21.554%46%
22.547%36%
23.540%30%
Each team on its own
Sunderlandwe expect 10.7, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 50%
Leedswe expect 11.9, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 62%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.565%63%
3.543%43%
4.525%23%
5.513%13%
Each team on its own
Sunderlandwe expect 2.1, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 61%
Leedswe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6:12 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Sunderland win 34%, draw 28%, Leeds win 37%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Leeds?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Sunderland 1.2, Leeds 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Leeds?
The chance that both teams score is 52%.
When is Sunderland vs Leeds?
The Premier League match kicks off 25 October 2026, 16:30 (UK time).