Ligue 1Matchday 8
Auxerre vs Le Mans: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%54%O2.554%51%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Auxerre2:1Le MansW
- Le Mans0:1AuxerreW
- Auxerre2:0Le MansW
- Le Mans0:2AuxerreW
- Le Mans3:0AuxerreL
Auxerre's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.6over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.6over 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.2total 2.8Attack/defence1.6 : 1.1total 2.7
Auxerre : Le MansMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-09%2-19%2-07%0-1—0-0—1-27%Attack/defence1-112%1-010%2-19%2-08%0-17%0-07%1-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-01-09%1-010%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-07%2-08%0-10-1—0-17%0-00-0—0-07%1-21-27%1-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 72%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%71% | 71% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%54% | 54% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 56%53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54%51% | 51% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46%49% | 49% |
| 1 – Auxerre win | 45%47% · Elo 48% | 47%· Elo 48% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%46% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%29% | 29% |
| 2 – Le Mans win | 29%27% · Elo 25% | 27%· Elo 25% |
| X – draw | 27%26% · Elo 26% | 26%· Elo 26% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
Auxerre attack vs Le Mans defenceattack1434defence1415+19 pts to the attack
Le Mans attack vs Auxerre defenceattack1426defence1466−40 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 9.3 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.569%60%
8.557%49%
9.545%38%
10.533%28%
Each team on its own
Auxerrewe expect 5.4, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 61%
Le Manswe expect 4.3, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 61%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 20.9 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.551%53%
21.544%47%
22.537%41%
23.530%36%
Each team on its own
Auxerrewe expect 10.6, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 48%
Le Manswe expect 10.3, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 45%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.567%63%
3.545%43%
4.527%26%
5.514%14%
Each team on its own
Auxerrewe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 53%
Le Manswe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Auxerre concede 2.1 goals per game
- Auxerre: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Auxerre matches average 11.7 corners (league 9.6) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Le Mans: newly promoted
- Auxerre: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Le Mans: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10:12 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8:16 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Auxerre are the favourites. Chances: Auxerre win 45%, draw 27%, Le Mans win 29%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Auxerre 1.6, Le Mans 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
The chance that both teams score is 57%.
When is Auxerre vs Le Mans?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 25 October 2026, 16:15 (UK time).