Ligue 1Matchday 7
Le Mans vs Toulouse: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 2d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%55%O2.556%51%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Le Mans1:3ToulouseL
- Toulouse2:0Le MansL
- Toulouse2:0Le MansL
- Le Mans1:2ToulouseL
- Toulouse1:1Le MansD
Le Mans's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.5league 9.6under 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.5 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.6over 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.6total 2.9Attack/defence1.3 : 1.4total 2.7
Le Mans : ToulouseMost likely scores
Market1-112%0-18%1-29%1-0—2-18%0-0—0-27%Attack/defence1-113%0-19%1-29%1-08%2-18%0-07%0-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%0-10-18%0-19%1-21-29%1-29%1-01-0—1-08%2-12-18%2-18%0-00-0—0-07%0-20-27%0-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 68%66% | 66% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67%72% | 72% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59%55% | 55% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 58%60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56%51% | 51% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44%49% | 49% |
| 2 – Toulouse win | 42%40% · Elo 42% | 40%· Elo 42% |
| Both teams to score: no | 41%45% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33%28% | 28% |
| 1 – Le Mans win | 32%34% · Elo 31% | 34%· Elo 31% |
| X – draw | 26%27% · Elo 28% | 27%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
Le Mans attack vs Toulouse defenceattack1426defence1516−90 pts to the attack
Toulouse attack vs Le Mans defenceattack1495defence1415+80 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 8.9 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.566%60%
8.553%49%
9.541%38%
10.529%28%
Each team on its own
Le Manswe expect 4.7, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 50%
Toulousewe expect 4.4, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 62%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 22.8 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.564%53%
21.557%47%
22.550%41%
23.543%36%
Each team on its own
Le Manswe expect 11.5, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 58%
Toulousewe expect 11.5, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 58%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.563%63%
3.541%43%
4.524%26%
5.512%14%
Each team on its own
Le Manswe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 51%
Toulousewe expect 1.5, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
Teams
- Toulouse4 draws in a row awayoverall: 1Went on 28%League 26%Model 26%Record 7
Players
- Casper TengstedtToulouse3 matches with a goal4 goalsWent on 27%Season 75%
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Le Mans: newly promoted
- Le Mans: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Toulouse: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10:12 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9:11 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Le Mans vs Toulouse?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Le Mans win 32%, draw 26%, Toulouse win 42%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Le Mans 1.3, Toulouse 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Toulouse?
The chance that both teams score is 59%.
When is Le Mans vs Toulouse?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 16 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).