2. BundesligaMatchday 7
Osnabruck 1-1 Dresden: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Bremer Brücke, Osnabruck
- Referee:
- Florian Exner
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Over 4.5Won58%
referee Florian Exner averages 5.0 card points a match, league average 4.9; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total
Other tips
- Total Goals: Over 2.5Lost59%
over 2.5 goals in 4 of the hosts' last 6 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 6 (59% of league matches)
For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Over 5.5Won43%
referee Florian Exner averages 5.0 card points a match, league average 4.9; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%59%O2.558%57%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.3both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Dresden2:2OsnabruckD
- Osnabruck3:0DresdenW
- Dresden2:0OsnabruckL
- Osnabruck1:0DresdenW
- Osnabruck1:1DresdenD
Osnabruck's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.2under 10.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 14
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.8league 4.5over 4.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 4.8 in this match, 4.5 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 20%.won · ended 9
RefereeF. Exner+0.8 yellow cards vs average25 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)73%X22:1coverageleague 66% · H2H 3/5covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.5total 3.0Attack/defence1.7 : 1.3total 3.0
Osnabruck : DresdenMost likely scores
Market1-112%2-19%1-07%1-28%2-0—0-16%2-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-08%1-27%2-08%0-1—2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-111%2-12-19%2-110%1-01-07%1-08%1-21-28%1-27%2-02-0—2-08%0-10-16%0-1—2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81%80% | 80% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 65%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65%65% | 65% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 61%51% | 51% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61%59% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58%57% | 57% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42%43% | 43% |
| 1 – Osnabruck win | 39%49% · Elo 43% | 49%· Elo 43% |
| Both teams to score: no | 39%41% | 41% |
| 2 – Dresden win | 35%27% · Elo 30% | 27%· Elo 30% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%35% | 35% |
| X – draw | 26%24% · Elo 27% | 24%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Osnabruck attack vs Dresden defenceattack1500defence1463+37 pts to the attack
Dresden attack vs Osnabruck defenceattack1475defence1512−37 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 10.5 in this match, 10.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.9.559%54%
10.547%50%
11.536%39%
12.526%32%
Each team on its own
Osnabruckwe expect 5.5, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 47%
Dresdenwe expect 4.9, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 36%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 20.0 in this match, 21.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.544%59%
21.537%55%
22.530%45%
23.525%39%
Each team on its own
Osnabruckwe expect 9.9, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 41%
Dresdenwe expect 10.0, league average 11.1 · chance of over 11.5: 31%
Referee: 21.4 fouls per match on average (20 matches in our data)−0.2 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.569%68%
3.548%38%
4.529%30%
5.516%16%
Each team on its own
Osnabruckwe expect 1.5, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Dresdenwe expect 2.0, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 59%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Dresden concede 2.0 goals per game
- Dresden: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Dresden: only 10 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Osnabruck: newly promoted
- Osnabruck: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Dresden: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Osnabruck | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:13 | 8 |
| 16 | Dresden | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Osnabruck vs Dresden?
Osnabruck 1-1 Dresden (half time 0-1).
Did the Osnabruck vs Dresden tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Over 4.5. The tip won.