UEFA Champions LeagueMatchday 3
Liverpool vs Villarreal: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 6d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceno forecast
H2Hlast 4 meetings
- Villarreal2:3LiverpoolW
- Liverpool2:0VillarrealW
- Liverpool3:0VillarrealW
- Villarreal1:0LiverpoolL
Liverpool's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.6under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.7under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical model
Expected goals
Model2.6 : 0.7total 3.3
Liverpool : VillarrealMost likely scores
Model2-013%3-011%1-010%2-19%4-08%
Model2-02-013%3-03-011%1-01-010%2-12-19%4-04-08%
| Outcome | Model |
|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 93% |
| 12 – no draw | 87% |
| 1 – Liverpool win | 80% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 20% |
| X – draw | 13% |
| 2 – Villarreal win | 7% |
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Villarreal concede 2.2 goals per game
- Liverpool matches average only 2.5 cards (league 4.0) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Villarreal: only 1 pts in 9 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Liverpool: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Villarreal: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
Form in the competition
Liverpool
Villarreal
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 15 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Liverpool are the favourites. Chances: Liverpool win 80%, draw 13%, Villarreal win 7%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Expected goals: 3.3 (Liverpool 2.6, Villarreal 0.7). Most likely score: 2-0.
When is Liverpool vs Villarreal?
The UEFA Champions League match kicks off 20 October 2026, 20:00 (UK time).