Serie AMatchday 8
Atalanta vs Frosinone: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS64%56%O2.567%58%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Atalanta5:0FrosinoneW
- Frosinone2:1AtalantaL
- Frosinone0:5AtalantaW
- Atalanta4:0FrosinoneW
- Frosinone0:0AtalantaD
Atalanta's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.2league 8.9over 8.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.6under 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.2 : 1.2total 3.4Attack/defence2.0 : 1.0total 3.0
Atalanta : FrosinoneMost likely scores
Market1-19%2-110%2-08%1-06%3-17%3-0—Attack/defence1-110%2-110%2-010%1-09%3-17%3-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-110%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-08%2-010%1-01-06%1-09%3-13-17%3-17%3-03-0—3-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86%80% | 80% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 81%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 79%78% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67%58% | 58% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64%56% | 56% |
| 1 – Atalanta win | 59%59% · Elo 60% | 59%· Elo 60% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 55%64% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45%36% | 36% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 42%41% | 41% |
| Both teams to score: no | 36%44% | 44% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33%42% | 42% |
| X – draw | 22%22% · Elo 24% | 22%· Elo 24% |
| 2 – Frosinone win | 20%19% · Elo 16% | 19%· Elo 16% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Atalanta attack vs Frosinone defenceattack1578defence1415+163 pts to the attack
Frosinone attack vs Atalanta defenceattack1409defence1514−105 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 9.3 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.570%57%
8.558%41%
9.545%28%
10.534%19%
Each team on its own
Atalantawe expect 5.4, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 61%
Frosinonewe expect 4.6, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 66%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 22.5 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.548%51%
23.541%45%
24.535%37%
25.529%33%
Each team on its own
Atalantawe expect 11.3, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 45%
Frosinonewe expect 11.1, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 44%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 4.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.578%62%
3.560%41%
4.541%28%
5.525%15%
Each team on its own
Atalantawe expect 1.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Frosinonewe expect 2.9, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 76%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Atalanta matches average only 2.1 cards (league 3.8) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Frosinone: newly promoted
- Atalanta: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Frosinone: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8:8 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Atalanta are the favourites. Chances: Atalanta win 59%, draw 22%, Frosinone win 20%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Expected goals: 3.4 (Atalanta 2.2, Frosinone 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 67%. Most likely score: 2-1.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
The chance that both teams score is 64%.
When is Atalanta vs Frosinone?
The Serie A match kicks off 25 October 2026, 14:00 (UK time).