Serie AMatchday 7
Milan vs Atalanta: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%59%O2.554%56%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Milan2:3AtalantaL
- Atalanta1:1MilanD
- Milan0:1AtalantaL
- Atalanta2:1MilanL
- Milan1:1AtalantaD
Milan's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.4league 8.9under 8.5: 53%Expected corners: 8.4 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.6under 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 1.1total 2.8Attack/defence1.6 : 1.3total 2.9
Milan : AtalantaMost likely scores
Market1-112%2-110%1-09%2-09%1-2—0-07%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-08%2-07%1-28%0-0—0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%2-12-110%2-19%1-01-09%1-08%2-02-09%2-07%1-21-2—1-28%0-00-07%0-0—0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79%79% | 79% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 76%69% | 69% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68%67% | 67% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56%59% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54%56% | 56% |
| 1 – Milan win | 51%44% · Elo 39% | 44%· Elo 39% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 48%56% | 56% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46%44% | 44% |
| Both teams to score: no | 44%41% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32%33% | 33% |
| X – draw | 25%25% · Elo 30% | 25%· Elo 30% |
| 2 – Atalanta win | 23%31% · Elo 31% | 31%· Elo 31% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Milan attack vs Atalanta defenceattack1559defence1514+45 pts to the attack
Atalanta attack vs Milan defenceattack1578defence1554+24 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 50%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 50%over
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.563%57%
8.550%41%
9.538%28%
10.527%19%
Each team on its own
Milanwe expect 5.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 57%
Atalantawe expect 4.0, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 55%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 21.1 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.538%51%
23.532%45%
24.526%37%
25.521%33%
Each team on its own
Milanwe expect 9.6, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 28%
Atalantawe expect 11.3, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 45%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.567%62%
3.545%41%
4.527%28%
5.514%15%
Each team on its own
Milanwe expect 2.0, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 57%
Atalantawe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Adrien RabiotMilan3 matches with a goal or assist2 goals, 1 assistWent on 33%Season 50%
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Atalanta matches average only 2.1 cards (league 3.8) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Milan matches average only 6.6 corners (league 8.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Milan: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Atalanta: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11:5 | 12 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8:8 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Milan vs Atalanta?
Milan are the favourites. Chances: Milan win 51%, draw 25%, Atalanta win 23%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Milan vs Atalanta?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Milan 1.7, Atalanta 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Milan vs Atalanta?
The chance that both teams score is 56%.
When is Milan vs Atalanta?
The Serie A match kicks off 18 October 2026, 17:00 (UK time).