Serie AMatchday 9
Sassuolo vs Lazio: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 13d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%O2.547%51%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Lazio2:1SassuoloL
- Sassuolo1:0LazioW
- Lazio1:1SassuoloD
- Sassuolo0:2LazioL
- Lazio2:0SassuoloL
Sassuolo's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.9league 8.9over 8.5: 53%Expected corners: 8.9 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.6over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.2 : 1.4total 2.6Attack/defence1.3 : 1.4total 2.7
Sassuolo : LazioMost likely scores
Model1-113%0-110%1-29%1-09%0-08%2-1—Attack/defence1-113%0-19%1-29%1-08%0-07%2-18%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%0-10-110%0-19%1-21-29%1-29%1-01-09%1-08%0-00-08%0-07%2-12-1—2-18%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 74%71% | 71% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 69%66% | 66% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 59%61% | 61% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47%51% | 51% |
| 2 – Lazio win | 42%40% · Elo 43% | 40%· Elo 43% |
| 1 – Sassuolo win | 31%34% · Elo 28% | 34%· Elo 28% |
| X – draw | 27%27% · Elo 30% | 27%· Elo 30% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27%25% | 25% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26%29% | 29% |
Attack vs defence
Sassuolo attack vs Lazio defenceattack1459defence1533−74 pts to the attack
Lazio attack vs Sassuolo defenceattack1509defence1444+65 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 9.2 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.568%57%
8.556%41%
9.543%28%
10.532%19%
Each team on its own
Sassuolowe expect 5.6, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 64%
Laziowe expect 4.2, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 60%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 22.5 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.548%51%
23.541%45%
24.535%37%
25.529%33%
Each team on its own
Sassuolowe expect 10.6, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 38%
Laziowe expect 11.8, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 51%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 67%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 33%
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.555%62%
3.533%41%
4.517%28%
5.58%15%
Each team on its own
Sassuolowe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
Laziowe expect 1.2, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lazio matches average 5.2 cards (league 3.8) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Lazio: 22 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Sassuolo played 3 days ago
- Lazio played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11:4 | 16 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:10 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Lazio are the favourites. Chances: Sassuolo win 31%, draw 27%, Lazio win 42%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Sassuolo 1.2, Lazio 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Sassuolo vs Lazio?
The Serie A match kicks off 27 October 2026, 17:30 (UK time).