Serie AMatchday 8
Lazio vs Parma: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS45%50%O2.547%48%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Lazio1:1ParmaD
- Parma0:1LazioW
- Lazio2:2ParmaD
- Parma3:1LazioL
- Lazio1:0ParmaW
Lazio's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.9league 8.9over 8.5: 53%Expected corners: 8.9 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.6under 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.8 : 0.7total 2.5Attack/defence1.6 : 1.0total 2.6
Lazio : ParmaMost likely scores
Market1-013%2-013%1-111%2-19%0-08%0-1—Attack/defence1-012%2-010%1-112%2-110%0-08%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-013%1-012%2-02-013%2-010%1-11-111%1-112%2-12-19%2-110%0-00-08%0-08%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 85%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73%73% | 73% |
| 1 – Lazio win | 63%53% · Elo 58% | 53%· Elo 58% |
| Both teams to score: no | 55%50% | 50% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47%48% | 48% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45%50% | 50% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 37%47% | 47% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27%27% | 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26%26% | 26% |
| X – draw | 22%25% · Elo 25% | 25%· Elo 25% |
| 2 – Parma win | 15%22% · Elo 17% | 22%· Elo 17% |
Attack vs defence
Lazio attack vs Parma defenceattack1509defence1451+58 pts to the attack
Parma attack vs Lazio defenceattack1386defence1533−147 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.555%57%
8.542%41%
9.530%28%
10.520%19%
Each team on its own
Laziowe expect 4.9, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 53%
Parmawe expect 3.3, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 41%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 22.6 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.549%51%
23.542%45%
24.535%37%
25.529%33%
Each team on its own
Laziowe expect 11.8, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 50%
Parmawe expect 10.8, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 40%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.567%62%
3.546%41%
4.527%28%
5.514%15%
Each team on its own
Laziowe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Parmawe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lazio matches average 5.2 cards (league 3.8) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Parma score only 0.7 goals per game
- Lazio: 22 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Parma score a lot late on: 8 of 16 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Lazio: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Parma: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11:4 | 16 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:10 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lazio vs Parma?
Lazio are the favourites. Chances: Lazio win 63%, draw 22%, Parma win 15%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs Parma?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Lazio 1.8, Parma 0.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-0.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Parma?
The chance that both teams score is 45%.
When is Lazio vs Parma?
The Serie A match kicks off 24 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).