J1 LeagueMatchday 12
Cerezo Osaka vs Chiba: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 3hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%O2.558%56%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Cerezo Osaka3:2ChibaW
- Chiba2:1Cerezo OsakaL
- Chiba1:2Cerezo OsakaW
- Cerezo Osaka2:0ChibaW
- Cerezo Osaka3:0ChibaW
Cerezo Osaka's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.4under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.6league 2.6under 2.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 2.6 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model2.0 : 1.0total 3.0Attack/defence1.8 : 1.2total 2.9
Cerezo Osaka : ChibaMost likely scores
Model1-110%2-110%1-010%2-010%3-17%1-2—0-1—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-09%2-08%3-1—1-26%0-16%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-010%1-09%2-02-010%2-08%3-13-17%3-1—1-21-2—1-26%0-10-1—0-16%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 80%76% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 79%76% | 76% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64%67% | 67% |
| 1 – Cerezo Osaka win | 59%52% · Elo 56% | 52%· Elo 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58%56% | 56% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42%44% | 44% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 41%48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36%33% | 33% |
| X – draw | 21%24% · Elo 24% | 24%· Elo 24% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%21% | 21% |
| 2 – Chiba win | 20%24% · Elo 19% | 24%· Elo 19% |
Attack vs defence
Cerezo Osaka attack vs Chiba defenceattack1519defence1387+132 pts to the attack
Chiba attack vs Cerezo Osaka defenceattack1428defence1455−27 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 7.8 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.551%53%
8.538%39%
9.526%28%
10.517%23%
Each team on its own
Cerezo Osakawe expect 4.2, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 41%
Chibawe expect 3.4, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 19.0 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.551%58%
19.544%49%
20.536%42%
21.530%35%
Each team on its own
Cerezo Osakawe expect 8.6, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 37%
Chibawe expect 10.3, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 45%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.561%54%
3.539%35%
4.522%19%
5.511%13%
Each team on its own
Cerezo Osakawe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Chibawe expect 1.9, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Chiba concede 2.1 goals per game
- Cerezo Osaka matches average 11.9 corners (league 9.4) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Cerezo Osaka: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Chiba: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:12 | 12 |
| 19 | Chiba | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8:19 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs Chiba?
Cerezo Osaka are the favourites. Chances: Cerezo Osaka win 59%, draw 21%, Chiba win 20%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Cerezo Osaka vs Chiba?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Cerezo Osaka 2.0, Chiba 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Cerezo Osaka vs Chiba?
The J1 League match kicks off 25 October 2026, 06:00 (UK time).