J1 LeagueMatchday 11
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 7d 4hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%O2.554%54%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Cerezo Osaka6:1Nagoya GrampusL
- Nagoya Grampus3:0Cerezo OsakaW
- Nagoya Grampus2:1Cerezo OsakaW
- Cerezo Osaka1:1Nagoya GrampusD
- Cerezo Osaka2:1Nagoya GrampusL
Nagoya Grampus's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.4over 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 45% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.7league 2.6over 2.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 2.7 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.4 : 1.4total 2.8Attack/defence1.5 : 1.3total 2.8
Nagoya Grampus : Cerezo OsakaMost likely scores
Model1-112%2-19%1-08%1-28%0-18%2-0—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%1-28%0-18%2-07%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-08%1-09%1-21-28%1-28%0-10-18%0-18%2-02-0—2-07%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68%69% | 69% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 63%67% | 67% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 62%59% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54%54% | 54% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46%46% | 46% |
| 1 – Nagoya Grampus win | 38%41% · Elo 34% | 41%· Elo 34% |
| 2 – Cerezo Osaka win | 37%33% · Elo 38% | 33%· Elo 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 29% | 26%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Nagoya Grampus attack vs Cerezo Osaka defenceattack1496defence1455+41 pts to the attack
Cerezo Osaka attack vs Nagoya Grampus defenceattack1519defence1468+51 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.556%53%
8.543%39%
9.531%28%
10.521%23%
Each team on its own
Nagoya Grampuswe expect 4.2, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 42%
Cerezo Osakawe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 20.0 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.559%58%
19.552%49%
20.544%42%
21.537%35%
Each team on its own
Nagoya Grampuswe expect 9.3, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 45%
Cerezo Osakawe expect 10.8, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 50%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.566%54%
3.544%35%
4.526%19%
5.513%13%
Each team on its own
Nagoya Grampuswe expect 2.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 67%
Cerezo Osakawe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Cerezo Osaka matches average 11.9 corners (league 9.4) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Nagoya Grampus: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Cerezo Osaka: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:12 | 12 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9:15 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Nagoya Grampus win 38%, draw 25%, Cerezo Osaka win 37%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Nagoya Grampus 1.4, Cerezo Osaka 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
The J1 League match kicks off 21 October 2026, 11:00 (UK time).