J1 LeagueMatchday 11
Urawa Reds vs Chiba: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 7d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%O2.556%53%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Urawa Reds2:0ChibaW
- Chiba0:2Urawa RedsW
- Urawa Reds3:1ChibaW
- Chiba0:1Urawa RedsW
- Chiba3:2Urawa RedsL
Urawa Reds's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.4under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.6league 2.6under 2.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 2.6 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.9 : 1.0total 2.9Attack/defence1.8 : 1.1total 2.8
Urawa Reds : ChibaMost likely scores
Model1-110%1-011%2-010%2-110%3-06%0-0—0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-010%2-09%2-110%3-0—0-06%0-16%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-110%1-112%1-01-011%1-010%2-02-010%2-09%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-06%3-0—0-00-0—0-06%0-10-1—0-16%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 81%77% | 77% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%76% | 76% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67%69% | 69% |
| 1 – Urawa Reds win | 59%53% · Elo 54% | 53%· Elo 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56%53% | 53% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44%47% | 47% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 41%47% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 22%24% · Elo 25% | 24%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21%23% | 23% |
| 2 – Chiba win | 19%23% · Elo 21% | 23%· Elo 21% |
Attack vs defence
Urawa Reds attack vs Chiba defenceattack1512defence1387+125 pts to the attack
Chiba attack vs Urawa Reds defenceattack1428defence1500−72 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.556%53%
8.543%39%
9.531%28%
10.521%23%
Each team on its own
Urawa Redswe expect 4.2, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 41%
Chibawe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 20.0 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.559%58%
19.551%49%
20.544%42%
21.537%35%
Each team on its own
Urawa Redswe expect 9.2, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 43%
Chibawe expect 10.9, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 51%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 71%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 29%
We expect 2.7 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.550%54%
3.529%35%
4.514%19%
5.56%13%
Each team on its own
Urawa Redswe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Chibawe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Urawa Reds concede 2.3 goals per game
- Chiba concede 2.1 goals per game
- Urawa Reds: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Urawa Reds: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Chiba: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Urawa Reds | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:21 | 12 |
| 19 | Chiba | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8:19 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Urawa Reds vs Chiba?
Urawa Reds are the favourites. Chances: Urawa Reds win 59%, draw 22%, Chiba win 19%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Urawa Reds vs Chiba?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Urawa Reds 1.9, Chiba 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-0.
When is Urawa Reds vs Chiba?
The J1 League match kicks off 21 October 2026, 11:30 (UK time).