J1 LeagueMatchday 11
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 7d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%O2.550%51%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Kashiwa Reysol1:3FC TokyoW
- FC Tokyo0:2Kashiwa ReysolL
- Kashiwa Reysol1:0FC TokyoL
- FC Tokyo1:1Kashiwa ReysolD
- Kashiwa Reysol3:2FC TokyoL
FC Tokyo's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.4under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.5league 2.6under 2.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 2.5 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.4 : 1.3total 2.7Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.7
FC Tokyo : Kashiwa ReysolMost likely scores
Model1-112%1-010%0-19%2-19%1-28%2-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-09%0-18%2-19%1-28%2-07%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-010%1-09%0-10-19%0-18%2-12-19%2-19%1-21-28%1-28%2-02-0—2-07%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 74%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%71% | 71% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 67%69% | 69% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 59%58% | 58% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50%49% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%51% | 51% |
| 1 – FC Tokyo win | 41%42% · Elo 40% | 42%· Elo 40% |
| 2 – Kashiwa Reysol win | 33%31% · Elo 32% | 31%· Elo 32% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 26%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
FC Tokyo attack vs Kashiwa Reysol defenceattack1546defence1515+31 pts to the attack
Kashiwa Reysol attack vs FC Tokyo defenceattack1565defence1554+11 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.554%53%
8.541%39%
9.529%28%
10.519%23%
Each team on its own
FC Tokyowe expect 4.1, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Kashiwa Reysolwe expect 3.8, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 18.0 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.543%58%
19.536%49%
20.529%42%
21.523%35%
Each team on its own
FC Tokyowe expect 8.9, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 40%
Kashiwa Reysolwe expect 8.8, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 28%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 66%close to the league averageunderover 34%
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.556%54%
3.534%35%
4.518%19%
5.58%13%
Each team on its own
FC Tokyowe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Kashiwa Reysolwe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- FC Tokyo: 4 wins in a row
- FC Tokyo: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Kashiwa Reysol: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21:14 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 20 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: FC Tokyo win 41%, draw 26%, Kashiwa Reysol win 33%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?
Expected goals: 2.7 (FC Tokyo 1.4, Kashiwa Reysol 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?
The J1 League match kicks off 21 October 2026, 11:00 (UK time).