J1 LeagueMatchday 12
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 2hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS47%O2.543%48%|exp. goals 1.8 : 0.8
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima1:1Shimizu S-PulseD
- Shimizu S-Pulse3:1Sanfrecce HiroshimaL
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:0Shimizu S-PulseD
- Shimizu S-Pulse1:1Sanfrecce HiroshimaD
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima2:0Shimizu S-PulseW
Sanfrecce Hiroshima's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.6league 9.4under 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.6 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.5league 2.6under 2.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 2.5 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.7 : 0.7total 2.4Attack/defence1.8 : 0.8total 2.6
Sanfrecce Hiroshima : Shimizu S-PulseMost likely scores
Model1-015%2-013%1-111%2-19%0-09%3-0—Attack/defence1-013%2-012%1-111%2-110%0-08%3-07%
ModelAttack/defence1-01-015%1-013%2-02-013%2-012%1-11-111%1-111%2-12-19%2-110%0-00-09%0-08%3-03-0—3-07%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 84%83% | 83% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 78%74% | 74% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%76% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69%73% | 73% |
| 1 – Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 60%59% · Elo 61% | 59%· Elo 61% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57%52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43%48% | 48% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 40%41% | 41% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31%27% | 27% |
| X – draw | 24%24% · Elo 22% | 24%· Elo 22% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22%26% | 26% |
| 2 – Shimizu S-Pulse win | 16%17% · Elo 16% | 17%· Elo 16% |
Attack vs defence
Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack vs Shimizu S-Pulse defenceattack1622defence1493+129 pts to the attack
Shimizu S-Pulse attack vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima defenceattack1427defence1628−201 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.556%53%
8.543%39%
9.531%28%
10.521%23%
Each team on its own
Sanfrecce Hiroshimawe expect 5.2, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 58%
Shimizu S-Pulsewe expect 3.1, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 37%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 50%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 19.8 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.558%58%
19.550%49%
20.543%42%
21.535%35%
Each team on its own
Sanfrecce Hiroshimawe expect 9.6, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 48%
Shimizu S-Pulsewe expect 10.2, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 44%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 47%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.568%54%
3.547%35%
4.528%19%
5.515%13%
Each team on its own
Sanfrecce Hiroshimawe expect 2.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 65%
Shimizu S-Pulsewe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.3 goals per game
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima concede only 0.6 goals per game
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima played 3 days ago
- Shimizu S-Pulse played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:6 | 20 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8:9 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the favourites. Chances: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 60%, draw 24%, Shimizu S-Pulse win 16%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse?
Expected goals: 2.4 (Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.7, Shimizu S-Pulse 0.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 43%. Most likely score: 1-0.
When is Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse?
The J1 League match kicks off 24 October 2026, 06:00 (UK time).