J1 LeagueMatchday 11
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 7d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%O2.537%43%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.3
H2Hlast 2 meetings
- Machida3:0Shimizu S-PulseL
- Shimizu S-Pulse2:2MachidaD
Shimizu S-Pulse's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss3.5 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners9.4league 9.4under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.5league 2.6under 2.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 2.5 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model0.9 : 1.3total 2.2Attack/defence1.1 : 1.3total 2.4
Shimizu S-Pulse : MachidaMost likely scores
Model0-115%1-113%0-011%1-010%0-29%1-2—Attack/defence0-112%1-113%0-09%1-09%0-28%1-29%
ModelAttack/defence0-10-115%0-112%1-11-113%1-113%0-00-011%0-09%1-01-010%1-09%0-20-29%0-28%1-21-2—1-29%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 82%78% | 78% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 74%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%72% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64%69% | 69% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63%57% | 57% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 54%58% | 58% |
| 2 – Machida win | 46%42% · Elo 53% | 42%· Elo 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37%43% | 43% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 36%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 28%28% · Elo 26% | 28%· Elo 26% |
| 1 – Shimizu S-Pulse win | 26%30% · Elo 22% | 30%· Elo 22% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Shimizu S-Pulse attack vs Machida defenceattack1427defence1565−138 pts to the attack
Machida attack vs Shimizu S-Pulse defenceattack1541defence1493+48 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.555%53%
8.541%39%
9.530%28%
10.520%23%
Each team on its own
Shimizu S-Pulsewe expect 3.9, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 34%
Machidawe expect 4.1, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 57%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 20.1 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.560%58%
19.552%49%
20.545%42%
21.537%35%
Each team on its own
Shimizu S-Pulsewe expect 9.8, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 51%
Machidawe expect 10.3, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 45%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 42%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.564%54%
3.542%35%
4.524%19%
5.512%13%
Each team on its own
Shimizu S-Pulsewe expect 1.5, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Machidawe expect 1.8, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 54%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Machida played 3 days ago
- Shimizu S-Pulse: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Machida | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:10 | 20 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8:9 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida?
Machida are the favourites. Chances: Shimizu S-Pulse win 26%, draw 28%, Machida win 46%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida?
Expected goals: 2.2 (Shimizu S-Pulse 0.9, Machida 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 37%. Most likely score: 0-1.
When is Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida?
The J1 League match kicks off 21 October 2026, 11:00 (UK time).