J1 LeagueMatchday 10
Machida vs Avispa Fukuoka: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 4d 4hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%47%O2.545%42%|exp. goals 1.5 : 0.9
H2Hlast 4 meetings
- Machida0:0Avispa FukuokaD
- Avispa Fukuoka2:2MachidaD
- Avispa Fukuoka0:3MachidaW
- Machida0:0Avispa FukuokaD
Machida's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 0 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 9.4under 9.5: 58%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.6league 2.6under 2.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 2.6 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 0.9total 2.4Attack/defence1.5 : 0.9total 2.4
Machida : Avispa FukuokaMost likely scores
Market1-012%1-113%2-010%0-09%2-19%0-1—Attack/defence1-013%1-113%2-010%0-010%2-19%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-012%1-013%1-11-113%1-113%2-02-010%2-010%0-00-09%0-010%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 78%76% | 76% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%68% | 68% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55%58% | 58% |
| Both teams to score: no | 52%53% | 53% |
| 1 – Machida win | 51%49% · Elo 61% | 49%· Elo 61% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 49%51% | 51% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48%47% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45%42% | 42% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%32% | 32% |
| X – draw | 27%27% · Elo 23% | 27%· Elo 23% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24%22% | 22% |
| 2 – Avispa Fukuoka win | 22%24% · Elo 17% | 24%· Elo 17% |
Attack vs defence
Machida attack vs Avispa Fukuoka defenceattack1541defence1520+21 pts to the attack
Avispa Fukuoka attack vs Machida defenceattack1416defence1565−149 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 47%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.560%53%
8.547%39%
9.535%28%
10.524%23%
Each team on its own
Machidawe expect 4.8, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 52%
Avispa Fukuokawe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 20.2 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.561%58%
19.553%49%
20.545%42%
21.538%35%
Each team on its own
Machidawe expect 8.9, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 40%
Avispa Fukuokawe expect 11.4, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 57%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.563%54%
3.541%35%
4.523%19%
5.512%13%
Each team on its own
Machidawe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Avispa Fukuokawe expect 1.6, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Machida | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:10 | 20 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11:13 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Machida vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Machida are the favourites. Chances: Machida win 51%, draw 27%, Avispa Fukuoka win 22%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Machida vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Expected goals: 2.4 (Machida 1.5, Avispa Fukuoka 0.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Machida vs Avispa Fukuoka?
The chance that both teams score is 48%.
When is Machida vs Avispa Fukuoka?
The J1 League match kicks off 18 October 2026, 08:00 (UK time).