J1 LeagueMatchday 10
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 2d 23hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%52%O2.551%47%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Shimizu S-Pulse1:2Gamba OsakaL
- Gamba Osaka2:2Shimizu S-PulseD
- Shimizu S-Pulse0:0Gamba OsakaD
- Gamba Osaka1:0Shimizu S-PulseL
- Gamba Osaka0:2Shimizu S-PulseW
Shimizu S-Pulse's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.4under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.6league 2.6under 2.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 2.6 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.2total 2.7Attack/defence1.3 : 1.3total 2.5
Shimizu S-Pulse : Gamba OsakaMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-09%0-1—2-19%0-07%1-27%Attack/defence1-113%1-010%0-110%2-18%0-08%1-28%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-09%1-010%0-10-1—0-110%2-12-19%2-18%0-00-07%0-08%1-21-27%1-28%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%72% | 72% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 69%64% | 64% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 57%63% | 63% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56%52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51%47% | 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: no | 44%48% | 48% |
| 1 – Shimizu S-Pulse win | 42%37% · Elo 32% | 37%· Elo 32% |
| 2 – Gamba Osaka win | 30%36% · Elo 40% | 36%· Elo 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29%25% | 25% |
| X – draw | 27%28% · Elo 28% | 28%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%28% | 28% |
Attack vs defence
Shimizu S-Pulse attack vs Gamba Osaka defenceattack1427defence1473−46 pts to the attack
Gamba Osaka attack vs Shimizu S-Pulse defenceattack1515defence1493+22 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.553%53%
8.540%39%
9.528%28%
10.519%23%
Each team on its own
Shimizu S-Pulsewe expect 4.0, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 37%
Gamba Osakawe expect 3.8, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 21.2 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.568%58%
19.560%49%
20.553%42%
21.546%35%
Each team on its own
Shimizu S-Pulsewe expect 10.6, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 59%
Gamba Osakawe expect 10.8, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 51%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 63%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.560%54%
3.538%35%
4.520%19%
5.510%13%
Each team on its own
Shimizu S-Pulsewe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Gamba Osakawe expect 1.7, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Gamba Osaka4 matches in a row without scoringaway: 2Went on 33%League 23%Model 29%Record 8
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Gamba Osaka: 4 defeats in a row
- Gamba Osaka score a lot late on: 11 of 26 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Shimizu S-Pulse: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Gamba Osaka: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8:9 | 13 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka?
Shimizu S-Pulse are the favourites. Chances: Shimizu S-Pulse win 42%, draw 27%, Gamba Osaka win 30%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka?
Expected goals: 2.7 (Shimizu S-Pulse 1.5, Gamba Osaka 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka?
The chance that both teams score is 56%.
When is Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka?
The J1 League match kicks off 17 October 2026, 05:00 (UK time).