J1 LeagueMatchday 11
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 7d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%O2.549%51%|exp. goals 1.0 : 1.7
H2Hlast 4 meetings
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima2:0V-Varen NagasakiL
- V-Varen Nagasaki1:3Sanfrecce HiroshimaL
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima2:0V-Varen NagasakiL
- V-Varen Nagasaki0:2Sanfrecce HiroshimaL
V-Varen Nagasaki's record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses2.5 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.4league 9.4under 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.6league 2.6under 2.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 2.6 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model0.9 : 1.7total 2.6Attack/defence1.0 : 1.7total 2.7
V-Varen Nagasaki : Sanfrecce HiroshimaMost likely scores
Model0-112%1-111%0-210%1-210%0-07%1-0—Attack/defence0-111%1-112%0-210%1-210%0-07%1-06%
ModelAttack/defence0-10-112%0-111%1-11-111%1-112%0-20-210%0-210%1-21-210%1-210%0-00-07%0-07%1-01-0—1-06%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 79%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%76% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73%72% | 72% |
| 2 – Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 55%55% · Elo 56% | 55%· Elo 56% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51%50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49%51% | 51% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 45%45% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27%28% | 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26%25% | 25% |
| X – draw | 24%25% · Elo 25% | 25%· Elo 25% |
| 1 – V-Varen Nagasaki win | 21%21% · Elo 20% | 21%· Elo 20% |
Attack vs defence
V-Varen Nagasaki attack vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima defenceattack1432defence1628−196 pts to the attack
Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack vs V-Varen Nagasaki defenceattack1622defence1430+192 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 8.9 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.566%53%
8.553%39%
9.541%28%
10.529%23%
Each team on its own
V-Varen Nagasakiwe expect 3.8, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 34%
Sanfrecce Hiroshimawe expect 5.4, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 77%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 19.2 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.554%58%
19.546%49%
20.538%42%
21.531%35%
Each team on its own
V-Varen Nagasakiwe expect 9.8, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 51%
Sanfrecce Hiroshimawe expect 9.4, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 34%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 68%close to the league averageunderover 32%
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.554%54%
3.532%35%
4.517%19%
5.58%13%
Each team on its own
V-Varen Nagasakiwe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Sanfrecce Hiroshimawe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.3 goals per game
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima concede only 0.6 goals per game
- V-Varen Nagasaki: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:6 | 20 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11:16 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the favourites. Chances: V-Varen Nagasaki win 21%, draw 24%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 55%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Expected goals: 2.6 (V-Varen Nagasaki 0.9, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 0-1.
When is V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
The J1 League match kicks off 21 October 2026, 11:00 (UK time).