J1 LeagueMatchday 12
Vissel Kobe vs Machida: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 10d 4hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS51%O2.541%45%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.1
H2Hlast 4 meetings
- Machida2:0Vissel KobeL
- Vissel Kobe1:0MachidaW
- Vissel Kobe0:0MachidaD
- Machida1:2Vissel KobeW
Vissel Kobe's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss1.5 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 9.4under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.6league 2.6under 2.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 2.6 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.2 : 1.1total 2.3Attack/defence1.4 : 1.1total 2.5
Vissel Kobe : MachidaMost likely scores
Model1-113%1-012%0-111%0-010%2-18%2-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%0-19%0-09%2-19%2-08%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-012%1-011%0-10-111%0-19%0-00-010%0-09%2-12-18%2-19%2-02-0—2-08%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 80%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%72% | 72% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 68%69% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67%71% | 71% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 60%58% | 58% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59%55% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41%45% | 45% |
| 1 – Vissel Kobe win | 40%42% · Elo 37% | 42%· Elo 37% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 33%29% | 29% |
| 2 – Machida win | 32%31% · Elo 34% | 31%· Elo 34% |
| X – draw | 28%28% · Elo 29% | 28%· Elo 29% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Vissel Kobe attack vs Machida defenceattack1553defence1565−12 pts to the attack
Machida attack vs Vissel Kobe defenceattack1541defence1580−39 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%53%
8.544%39%
9.532%28%
10.522%23%
Each team on its own
Vissel Kobewe expect 4.3, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Machidawe expect 4.0, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 20.5 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.563%58%
19.555%49%
20.548%42%
21.541%35%
Each team on its own
Vissel Kobewe expect 9.1, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 43%
Machidawe expect 11.5, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 58%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.569%54%
3.548%35%
4.530%19%
5.516%13%
Each team on its own
Vissel Kobewe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 51%
Machidawe expect 1.9, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Vissel Kobe played 3 days ago
- Machida played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Machida | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:10 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 19 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vissel Kobe vs Machida?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Vissel Kobe win 40%, draw 28%, Machida win 32%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Vissel Kobe vs Machida?
Expected goals: 2.3 (Vissel Kobe 1.2, Machida 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 41%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Vissel Kobe vs Machida?
The J1 League match kicks off 24 October 2026, 07:00 (UK time).