Eerste DivisieMatchday 9

Helmond 2-2 Heracles: prediction, tips and result

·

Helmond
2-34-23-11-20-2
2-2Full time(half time 1-2)
Heracles
2-00-13-25-03-1
Stadium:
SolarUnie Stadion, Helmond

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Match Result: HeraclesLost71%

Heracles: won 7 of their last 8 league matches; won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings

Other tips

  • Shots on Target – Helmond: Under 4.5Lost59%

    Helmond: 3.5 shots on target a match, Heracles's opponents had 3.1 on average, league average 5.4; our numbers for Helmond: 4.2 shots on target against a league average of 5.4

  • Fouls – Helmond: Over 12.5Won56%

    our numbers for Helmond: 13.4 fouls against a league average of 11.8; Helmond: over 12.5 fouls in 5 of their last 8 league matches, Heracles's opponents committed over 12.5 in 3 of 7 (34% of league matches)

  • Offsides – Helmond: Under 1.5Won68%

    Helmond: under 1.5 offsides in 8 of their last 8 league matches (61% of league matches); 0.8 offsides a match, Heracles's opponents were caught offside 1.4 times on average, league average 1.5

For the brave
Correct Score: 0:2Lost10%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloHelmond119116%19%Draw19%22%Heracles145666%59%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%58%O2.568%57%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.8both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Helmond0:1HeraclesL
  2. Heracles2:0HelmondL
  3. Helmond0:1HeraclesL
  4. Heracles3:0HelmondL
  5. Heracles3:3HelmondD
Helmond's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.5under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.5 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 14
Cardsleague cards3.3league 3.3under 3.5: 59%Expected cards: 3.3 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 3.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.lost · ended 9
Refereeawaiting appointment
Dutching(several bets at once)67%BTTS yes0:2coverageleague 62% · H2H 2/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 2.4total 3.5Attack/defence1.2 : 1.8total 3.0
Helmond : Heracles
Most likely scores
Market1-19%1-210%0-29%0-1—1-38%0-37%2-1—Attack/defence1-111%1-210%0-28%0-19%1-36%0-3—2-16%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-111%1-21-210%1-210%0-20-29%0-28%0-10-1—0-19%1-31-38%1-36%0-30-37%0-3—2-12-1—2-16%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals87%80%80%
X2 – away team avoid defeat85%75%75%
12 – no draw82%76%76%
Over 2.5 goals68%57%57%
Our tip: 2 – Heracles win66%51% · Elo 59%51%· Elo 59%
Both teams to score: yes61%58%58%
Under 3.5 goals54%65%65%
Over 3.5 goals46%35%35%
Both teams to score: no39%42%42%
1X – home team avoid defeat35%49%49%
Under 2.5 goals32%43%43%
X – draw19%24% · Elo 22%24%· Elo 22%
1 – Helmond win16%25% · Elo 19%25%· Elo 19%
Under 1.5 goals13%20%20%
Attack vs defence
Helmond attack vs Heracles defenceattack1392defence1607−215 pts to the attack
Heracles attack vs Helmond defenceattack1647defence1513+134 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 9.8 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
9.552%56%
10.540%41%
11.529%33%
12.520%25%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Helmondwe expect 4.2, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 26%
Heracleswe expect 5.3, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 60%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 24.3 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
22.560%46%
23.553%44%
24.547%33%
25.540%29%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Helmondwe expect 13.4, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 66%
Heracleswe expect 11.1, league average 11.3 · chance of over 11.5: 43%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 68%close to the league averageunderover 32%
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.554%59%
3.532%29%
4.516%20%
5.57%10%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Helmondwe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Heracleswe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 50%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Heracles: newly promoted
  • Helmond: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Heracles: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

Helmond

Heracles

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Heracles1081131:1225
17Helmond1023516:199
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Helmond vs Heracles?

Helmond 2-2 Heracles (half time 1-2).

Did the Helmond vs Heracles tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Match Result: Heracles. The tip lost.

See also