EredivisieMatchday 9
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS64%59%O2.570%57%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.8
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- AZ Alkmaar2:1CambuurL
- Cambuur0:1AZ AlkmaarL
- AZ Alkmaar0:0CambuurD
- Cambuur1:3AZ AlkmaarL
- AZ Alkmaar3:1CambuurL
Cambuur's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.6league 10.4under 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.6 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.0league 3.0under 3.5: 66%Expected yellow cards: 3.0 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.In this league 65% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 2.4total 3.6Attack/defence1.2 : 1.8total 3.0
Cambuur : AZ AlkmaarMost likely scores
Market1-18%1-29%0-1—0-28%1-38%2-1—0-36%2-2—Attack/defence1-111%1-210%0-19%0-28%1-3—2-17%0-3—2-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-18%1-111%1-21-29%1-210%0-10-1—0-19%0-20-28%0-28%1-31-38%1-3—2-12-1—2-17%0-30-36%0-3—2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%80% | 80% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 83%74% | 74% |
| 12 – no draw | 82%76% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%57% | 57% |
| 2 – AZ Alkmaar win | 65%51% · Elo 65% | 51%· Elo 65% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64%59% | 59% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 51%65% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49%35% | 35% |
| Both teams to score: no | 36%41% | 41% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 35%50% | 50% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30%43% | 43% |
| X – draw | 18%24% · Elo 21% | 24%· Elo 21% |
| 1 – Cambuur win | 17%26% · Elo 14% | 26%· Elo 14% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Cambuur attack vs AZ Alkmaar defenceattack1397defence1590−193 pts to the attack
AZ Alkmaar attack vs Cambuur defenceattack1568defence1420+148 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 10.1 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.9.555%51%
10.543%41%
11.533%33%
12.523%21%
Each team on its own
Cambuurwe expect 4.4, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 29%
AZ Alkmaarwe expect 5.7, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 65%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 37%over
We expect 21.6 in this match, 19.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.570%59%
19.563%50%
20.556%43%
21.548%37%
Each team on its own
Cambuurwe expect 9.6, league average 9.4 · chance of over 9.5: 48%
AZ Alkmaarwe expect 12.3, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 66%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 2.9 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.578%71%
2.555%48%
3.533%29%
4.517%14%
Each team on its own
Cambuurwe expect 1.6, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
AZ Alkmaarwe expect 1.4, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Cambuur: newly promoted
- Cambuur: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- AZ Alkmaar: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 19 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11:19 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar are the favourites. Chances: Cambuur win 17%, draw 18%, AZ Alkmaar win 65%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Expected goals: 3.6 (Cambuur 1.2, AZ Alkmaar 2.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 70%. Most likely score: 1-2.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
The chance that both teams score is 64%.
When is Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
The Eredivisie match kicks off 18 October 2026, 13:30 (UK time).