EredivisieMatchday 9
Groningen vs Ajax: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS69%60%O2.570%57%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.6
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Ajax2:0GroningenL
- Groningen3:1AjaxW
- Ajax2:0GroningenL
- Groningen2:2AjaxD
- Ajax3:1GroningenL
Groningen's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 10.4under 10.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.1league 3.0under 3.5: 64%Expected yellow cards: 3.1 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.In this league 65% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 2.2total 3.7Attack/defence1.4 : 1.6total 3.0
Groningen : AjaxMost likely scores
Market1-19%1-29%2-1—0-1—2-27%1-37%1-0—0-26%Attack/defence1-112%1-29%2-18%0-18%2-26%1-3—1-07%0-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-112%1-21-29%1-29%2-12-1—2-18%0-10-1—0-18%2-22-27%2-26%1-31-37%1-3—1-01-0—1-07%0-20-26%0-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%80% | 80% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%75% | 75% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 75%66% | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%57% | 57% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 69%60% | 60% |
| 2 – Ajax win | 53%40% · Elo 47% | 40%· Elo 47% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 51%65% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49%35% | 35% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 47%60% | 60% |
| Both teams to score: no | 31%40% | 40% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30%43% | 43% |
| 1 – Groningen win | 25%35% · Elo 25% | 35%· Elo 25% |
| X – draw | 22%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Groningen attack vs Ajax defenceattack1502defence1607−105 pts to the attack
Ajax attack vs Groningen defenceattack1581defence1509+72 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 10.0 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.9.554%51%
10.542%41%
11.531%33%
12.522%21%
Each team on its own
Groningenwe expect 4.7, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 34%
Ajaxwe expect 5.2, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 58%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 75%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 25%
We expect 16.5 in this match, 19.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.532%59%
19.525%50%
20.519%43%
21.514%37%
Each team on its own
Groningenwe expect 7.6, league average 9.4 · chance of over 9.5: 25%
Ajaxwe expect 8.5, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 25%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.571%71%
2.545%48%
3.524%29%
4.511%14%
Each team on its own
Groningenwe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Ajaxwe expect 1.2, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Ajax score 2.4 goals per game
- Groningen: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Ajax concede a lot late on: 9 of 21 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Groningen: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Ajax: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22:10 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20:14 | 14 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?
Ajax are the favourites. Chances: Groningen win 25%, draw 22%, Ajax win 53%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Groningen vs Ajax?
Expected goals: 3.7 (Groningen 1.5, Ajax 2.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 70%. Most likely score: 1-2.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Ajax?
The chance that both teams score is 69%.
When is Groningen vs Ajax?
The Eredivisie match kicks off 18 October 2026, 15:45 (UK time).