EredivisieMatchday 8

Ajax 1-1 Nijmegen: prediction, tips and result

·

Ajax
4-01-35-15-12-2
1-1Full time(half time 1-1)
Nijmegen
1-10-32-21-33-1
Stadium:
Johan Cruijff ArenA, Amsterdam
Referee:
Serdar Gozubuyuk

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Total Goals: Over 3.5Lost58%

over 3.5 goals in 6 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 7 (41% of league matches); our numbers: 4.1 goals in total in this match, league average 3.2

Other tips

  • Corners: Under 10.5Won57%

    10.0 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 8.7 in the visitors', league average 10.4

  • Fouls – Nijmegen: Under 10.5Lost67%

    our numbers for Nijmegen: 9.2 fouls against a league average of 10.2

  • Offsides: Over 2.5Won57%

    over 2.5 offsides in 4 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 7 (47% of league matches); our numbers: 3.0 offsides against a league average of 2.6

  • Shots on Target – Nijmegen: Under 4.5Won56%

    Nijmegen: under 4.5 shots on target in 6 of their last 7 league matches, Ajax's opponents had under 4.5 in 5 of 7 (52% of league matches)

For the brave
Correct Score: 3:1Lost8%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloAjax179374%60%Draw14%23%Nijmegen164012%16%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS65%62%O2.577%62%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.3both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Ajax1:1NijmegenD
  2. Nijmegen2:2AjaxD
  3. Ajax0:3NijmegenL
  4. Nijmegen1:2AjaxW
  5. Ajax2:2NijmegenD
Ajax's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.4under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 8
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.1under 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.In this league 65% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.lost · ended 4
RefereeS. Gozubuyuk+0.4 yellow cards vs average46 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)68%U4.54:1coverageleague 82% · H2H 5/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.9 : 1.2total 4.1Attack/defence2.0 : 1.3total 3.2
Ajax : Nijmegen
Most likely scores
Market1-16%2-18%3-18%2-07%1-0—3-07%1-2—Attack/defence1-110%2-110%3-16%2-08%1-08%3-0—1-26%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-16%1-110%2-12-18%2-110%3-13-18%3-16%2-02-07%2-08%1-01-0—1-08%3-03-07%3-0—1-21-2—1-26%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals92%83%83%
1X – home team avoid defeat88%76%76%
12 – no draw86%78%78%
Over 2.5 goals77%62%62%
1 – Ajax win74%54% · Elo 60%54%· Elo 60%
Both teams to score: yes65%62%62%
Our tip: Over 3.5 goals58%40%40%
Under 3.5 goals42%60%60%
Both teams to score: no35%38%38%
X2 – away team avoid defeat26%47%47%
Under 2.5 goals23%38%38%
X – draw14%23% · Elo 23%23%· Elo 23%
2 – Nijmegen win12%24% · Elo 16%24%· Elo 16%
Under 1.5 goals8%17%17%
Attack vs defence
Ajax attack vs Nijmegen defenceattack1589defence1517+72 pts to the attack
Nijmegen attack vs Ajax defenceattack1563defence1606−43 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 10.1 in this match, 10.1 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
9.555%51%
10.543%42%
11.532%34%
12.523%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Ajaxwe expect 5.8, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 51%
Nijmegenwe expect 4.4, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 19.0 in this match, 19.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
18.551%59%
19.544%50%
20.536%43%
21.530%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Ajaxwe expect 9.0, league average 9.4 · chance of over 9.5: 42%
Nijmegenwe expect 9.2, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 33%
Referee: 20.1 fouls per match on average (41 matches in our data)+0.8 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 57%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 43%over
We expect 3.0 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.579%70%
2.557%47%
3.535%28%
4.519%13%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Ajaxwe expect 1.7, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Nijmegenwe expect 1.4, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 40%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Ajax score 2.3 goals per game
  • Nijmegen: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Nijmegen: only 12 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 18 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Ajax concede a lot late on: 9 of 21 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
  • Ajax: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Nijmegen: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Ajax

Nijmegen

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Ajax843122:1015
11Nijmegen823313:149
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Ajax vs Nijmegen?

Ajax 1-1 Nijmegen (half time 1-1).

Did the Ajax vs Nijmegen tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 3.5. The tip lost.

See also