EredivisieMatchday 3
Ajax 5-1 Willem II: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Johan Cruijff ArenA, Amsterdam
- Referee:
- Allard Lindhout
Our tips
Main tip
Total Goals: Over 3.5Won62%
our numbers: 4.3 goals in total in this match, league average 3.3; over 3.5 goals in 4 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 3 of the visitors' last 5 (42% of league matches)
Other tips
- Cards: Under 3.5Won67%
referee Allard Lindhout averages 2.5 cards a match, league average 3.2
For the brave
Correct Score: 4:0Lost9%
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%54%O2.580%62%|exp. goals 2.3 : 0.9both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Willem II1:2AjaxW
- Ajax1:0Willem IIW
- Willem II0:1AjaxW
- Ajax5:0Willem IIW
- Ajax3:1Willem IIW
Ajax's record: 5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.5under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.5 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 16
Cardsleague cards2.9league 3.2under 3.5: 67%Expected cards: 2.9 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 61% of matches end under 3.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.won · ended 0
RefereeA. Lindhout−0.8 cards vs average35 matches
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market3.6 : 0.7total 4.3Attack/defence2.3 : 0.9total 3.2
Ajax : Willem IIMost likely scores
Market2-09%3-010%2-1—1-0—4-09%1-1—3-18%4-17%Attack/defence2-011%3-08%2-110%1-09%4-0—1-19%3-17%4-1—
MarketAttack/defence2-02-09%2-011%3-03-010%3-08%2-12-1—2-110%1-01-0—1-09%4-04-09%4-0—1-11-1—1-19%3-13-18%3-17%4-14-17%4-1—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 96%87% | 87% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93%83% | 83% |
| 12 – no draw | 92%81% | 81% |
| 1 – Ajax win | 88%68% · Elo 80% | 68%· Elo 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80%62% | 62% |
| Our tip: Over 3.5 goals | 62%40% | 40% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: no | 50%46% | 46% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 38%60% | 60% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20%38% | 38% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 12%32% | 32% |
| X – draw | 8%19% · Elo 13% | 19%· Elo 13% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 7%17% | 17% |
| 2 – Willem II win | 4%13% · Elo 7% | 13%· Elo 7% |
Attack vs defence
Ajax attack vs Willem II defenceattack1571defence1421+150 pts to the attack
Willem II attack vs Ajax defenceattack1383defence1609−226 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Ajax concede a lot late on: 8 of 20 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Ajax played 3 days ago
- Willem II: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22:10 | 15 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7:23 | 2 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Ajax vs Willem II?
Ajax 5-1 Willem II (half time 2-0).
Did the Ajax vs Willem II tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 3.5. The tip won.