EredivisieMatchday 7
Ajax 2-2 Excelsior: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Johan Cruijff ArenA, Amsterdam
- Referee:
- Jannick van der Laan
Our tips
Main tip
Total Goals: Over 3.5Won56%
our numbers: 4.0 goals in total in this match, league average 3.3; over 3.5 goals in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings
Other tips
- Match Result: AjaxLost80%
Ajax: won 4 of their last 6 league matches
For the brave
Correct Score: 3:1Lost8%
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%56%O2.576%59%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.0both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Excelsior2:2AjaxD
- Ajax1:2ExcelsiorL
- Ajax2:2ExcelsiorD
- Excelsior2:2AjaxD
- Excelsior1:4AjaxW
Ajax's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss4.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.4under 10.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 8
Cardsleague cards3.4league 3.2under 3.5: 55%Expected cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 62% of matches end under 3.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.won · ended 3
RefereeJ. van der Laan+0.5 cards vs average36 matches
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market3.1 : 0.9total 4.0Attack/defence2.0 : 1.0total 3.1
Ajax : ExcelsiorMost likely scores
Market1-1—2-18%2-09%1-0—3-09%3-18%4-07%Attack/defence1-110%2-110%2-010%1-09%3-07%3-17%4-0—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-1—1-110%2-12-18%2-110%2-02-09%2-010%1-01-0—1-09%3-03-09%3-07%3-13-18%3-17%4-04-07%4-0—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 92%82% | 82% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 88%78% | 78% |
| 1 – Ajax win | 80%61% · Elo 71% | 61%· Elo 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76%59% | 59% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%56% | 56% |
| Our tip: Over 3.5 goals | 56%36% | 36% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 44%64% | 64% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%44% | 44% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24%41% | 41% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 20%39% | 39% |
| X – draw | 12%22% · Elo 18% | 22%· Elo 18% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9%19% | 19% |
| 2 – Excelsior win | 8%18% · Elo 11% | 18%· Elo 11% |
Attack vs defence
Ajax attack vs Excelsior defenceattack1582defence1498+84 pts to the attack
Excelsior attack vs Ajax defenceattack1445defence1611−166 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Excelsior score 2.5 goals per game
- Excelsior: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Excelsior: 20 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Ajax concede a lot late on: 9 of 20 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Ajax: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Excelsior: 6 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22:10 | 15 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16:14 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Ajax vs Excelsior?
Ajax 2-2 Excelsior (half time 1-1).
Did the Ajax vs Excelsior tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 3.5. The tip won.