EredivisieMatchday 8

Excelsior 1-5 Groningen: prediction, tips and result

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Excelsior
2-13-02-21-22-2
1-5Full time(half time 1-2)
Groningen
3-01-12-22-31-5
Stadium:
Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam
Referee:
Richard Martens

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Won61%

under 3.5 card points in 6 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 7 (60% of league matches); 2.3 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 2.4 in the visitors', league average 3.4; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Total Goals: Over 2.5Won62%

    over 2.5 goals in 7 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 7 (63% of league matches)

  • Corners: Under 10.5Won57%

    under 10.5 corners in 5 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 7 (52% of league matches)

  • Fouls – Groningen: Under 8.5Won61%

    our numbers for Groningen: 7.9 fouls against a league average of 10.2; Groningen: under 8.5 fouls in 5 of their last 7 league matches, Excelsior's opponents committed under 8.5 in 6 of 7 (32% of league matches)

  • Offsides – Excelsior: Under 1.5Won68%

    Excelsior: 0.4 offsides a match, Groningen's opponents were caught offside 0.7 times on average, league average 1.4; under 1.5 offsides in 7 of their last 7 league matches, Groningen's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 5 of 7 (57% of league matches)

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Won40%

under 2.5 card points in 3 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 7 (36% of league matches); 2.3 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 2.4 in the visitors', league average 3.4; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloExcelsior151837%35%Draw26%30%Groningen162537%36%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS65%58%O2.562%55%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.3both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Groningen2:3ExcelsiorW
  2. Excelsior0:2GroningenL
  3. Groningen3:0ExcelsiorL
  4. Excelsior1:0GroningenW
  5. Groningen1:0ExcelsiorL
Excelsior's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.4under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 9
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.9league 3.0under 3.5: 68%Expected yellow cards: 2.9 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.In this league 65% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 17%.won · ended 2
RefereeR. Martens−0.1 yellow cards vs average29 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)74%O2.51:1coverageleague 71% · H2H 2/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.6total 3.2Attack/defence1.6 : 1.3total 2.9
Excelsior : Groningen
Most likely scores
Market1-111%2-18%1-06%1-28%0-1—2-27%2-0—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-08%1-28%0-17%2-2—2-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%2-12-18%2-19%1-01-06%1-08%1-21-28%1-28%0-10-1—0-17%2-22-27%2-2—2-02-0—2-07%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals84%78%78%
12 – no draw74%75%75%
Both teams to score: yes65%58%58%
1X – home team avoid defeat63%68%68%
X2 – away team avoid defeat63%58%58%
Over 2.5 goals62%55%55%
Under 3.5 goals60%67%67%
Over 3.5 goals40%33%33%
Under 2.5 goals38%45%45%
1 – Excelsior win37%42% · Elo 35%42%· Elo 35%
2 – Groningen win37%32% · Elo 36%32%· Elo 36%
Both teams to score: no35%42%42%
X – draw26%25% · Elo 30%25%· Elo 30%
Under 1.5 goals16%22%22%
Attack vs defence
Excelsior attack vs Groningen defenceattack1449defence1506−57 pts to the attack
Groningen attack vs Excelsior defenceattack1480defence1491−11 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 9.7 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
9.550%51%
10.538%41%
11.528%34%
12.519%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Excelsiorwe expect 5.0, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 38%
Groningenwe expect 4.5, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 47%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 34%
We expect 17.7 in this match, 19.6 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
18.541%60%
19.534%50%
20.527%43%
21.521%37%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Excelsiorwe expect 9.5, league average 9.4 · chance of over 9.5: 48%
Groningenwe expect 7.9, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 19%
Referee: 20.4 fouls per match on average (14 matches in our data)−0.1 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.568%71%
2.543%48%
3.522%28%
4.510%14%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Excelsiorwe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Groningenwe expect 1.2, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 33%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Excelsior: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Groningen: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Excelsior: 18 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 12 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Excelsior: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Groningen: 23 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Excelsior

Groningen

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Groningen842220:1414
9Excelsior832316:1411
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Excelsior vs Groningen?

Excelsior 1-5 Groningen (half time 1-2).

Did the Excelsior vs Groningen tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5. The tip won.

See also