EredivisieMatchday 9
Twente vs Utrecht: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%59%O2.572%61%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Twente0:2UtrechtL
- Utrecht1:1TwenteD
- Twente2:0UtrechtW
- Utrecht2:1TwenteL
- Twente0:1UtrechtL
Twente's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.9league 10.4over 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.9 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.9league 3.0under 3.5: 66%Expected yellow cards: 2.9 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.In this league 65% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.7 : 1.0total 3.7Attack/defence2.0 : 1.1total 3.1
Twente : UtrechtMost likely scores
Market1-17%2-19%2-09%1-0—3-08%3-18%Attack/defence1-110%2-110%2-09%1-08%3-06%3-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-17%1-110%2-12-19%2-110%2-02-09%2-09%1-01-0—1-08%3-03-08%3-06%3-13-18%3-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 89%79% | 79% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89%82% | 82% |
| 12 – no draw | 85%78% | 78% |
| 1 – Twente win | 74%57% · Elo 54% | 57%· Elo 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72%61% | 61% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59%59% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51%38% | 38% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 49%62% | 62% |
| Both teams to score: no | 41%41% | 41% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28%39% | 39% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 26%43% | 43% |
| X – draw | 15%22% · Elo 26% | 22%· Elo 26% |
| 2 – Utrecht win | 11%21% · Elo 20% | 21%· Elo 20% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11%18% | 18% |
Attack vs defence
Twente attack vs Utrecht defenceattack1574defence1490+84 pts to the attack
Utrecht attack vs Twente defenceattack1518defence1617−99 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 10.6 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.9.561%51%
10.549%41%
11.538%33%
12.528%21%
Each team on its own
Twentewe expect 7.0, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 68%
Utrechtwe expect 4.1, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 38%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 19.5 in this match, 19.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.555%59%
19.548%50%
20.540%43%
21.533%37%
Each team on its own
Twentewe expect 9.1, league average 9.4 · chance of over 9.5: 42%
Utrechtwe expect 10.4, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 46%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 59%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 41%
We expect 2.3 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.567%71%
2.541%48%
3.521%29%
4.59%14%
Each team on its own
Twentewe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 30%
Utrechtwe expect 1.2, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Utrecht8 matches in a row over 2.5 goalsaway: 4Went on 58%League 72%Model 72%Record 15
- Twente5 wins in a row at homeWent on 55%League 31%Model 74%Record 19
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Utrecht concede 2.7 goals per game
- Utrecht: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Twente: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Utrecht: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16:8 | 17 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14:25 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Twente vs Utrecht?
Twente are the favourites. Chances: Twente win 74%, draw 15%, Utrecht win 11%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Twente vs Utrecht?
Expected goals: 3.7 (Twente 2.7, Utrecht 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 72%. Most likely score: 2-0.
Will both teams score in Twente vs Utrecht?
The chance that both teams score is 59%.
When is Twente vs Utrecht?
The Eredivisie match kicks off 18 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).