EredivisieMatchday 8

Utrecht 3-1 Willem II: prediction, tips and result

·

Utrecht
3-31-63-32-10-5
3-1Full time(half time 0-0)
Willem II
0-11-51-10-32-2
Stadium:
Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Referee:
Jannick van der Laan

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Total Goals: Over 2.5Won65%

over 2.5 goals in 7 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 7 (63% of league matches); over 2.5 goals in 5 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings

Other tips

  • Match Result: UtrechtWon63%

    Utrecht: won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings; Willem II: winless in their last 7 league matches

  • Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Won59%

    3.3 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 1.6 in the visitors', league average 3.4; under 3.5 card points in 4 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 7 (60% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

  • Fouls – Willem II: Under 10.5Lost66%

    Willem II: under 10.5 fouls in 6 of their last 7 league matches, Utrecht's opponents committed under 10.5 in 5 of 7 (53% of league matches); our numbers for Willem II: 9.4 fouls against a league average of 10.2

  • Offsides: Under 2.5Won61%

    1.6 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 2.6 in the visitors', league average 2.6

For the brave
Total Goals: Over 3.5Won43%

over 3.5 goals in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings; over 3.5 goals in 5 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 7 (41% of league matches)

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloUtrecht164365%67%Draw19%21%Willem II141416%13%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%59%O2.567%61%|exp. goals 2.1 : 1.1both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Willem II2:3UtrechtW
  2. Utrecht3:2Willem IIW
  3. Willem II3:0UtrechtL
  4. Utrecht5:1Willem IIW
  5. Utrecht3:2Willem IIW
Utrecht's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss4.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.4under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 10
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.0league 3.1under 3.5: 64%Expected yellow cards: 3.0 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.In this league 65% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.won · ended 2
RefereeJ. van der Laan+0.5 yellow cards vs average37 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)72%11:1coverageleague 55% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.3 : 1.1total 3.4Attack/defence2.1 : 1.1total 3.2
Utrecht : Willem II
Most likely scores
Market2-110%1-19%2-09%1-07%3-18%3-0—Attack/defence2-110%1-110%2-09%1-08%3-17%3-06%
MarketAttack/defence2-12-110%2-110%1-11-19%1-110%2-02-09%2-09%1-01-07%1-08%3-13-18%3-17%3-03-0—3-06%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals86%82%82%
1X – home team avoid defeat84%81%81%
12 – no draw81%78%78%
Our tip: Over 2.5 goals67%61%61%
1 – Utrecht win65%59% · Elo 67%59%· Elo 67%
Both teams to score: yes61%59%59%
Under 3.5 goals55%61%61%
Over 3.5 goals45%39%39%
Both teams to score: no39%41%41%
X2 – away team avoid defeat35%41%41%
Under 2.5 goals33%39%39%
X – draw19%21% · Elo 21%21%· Elo 21%
2 – Willem II win16%19% · Elo 13%19%· Elo 13%
Under 1.5 goals14%18%18%
Attack vs defence
Utrecht attack vs Willem II defenceattack1514defence1411+103 pts to the attack
Willem II attack vs Utrecht defenceattack1376defence1488−112 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 10.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 9.9 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
9.552%51%
10.540%42%
11.530%34%
12.521%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Utrechtwe expect 5.4, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 45%
Willem IIwe expect 4.3, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 34%
We expect 17.8 in this match, 19.6 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
18.542%59%
19.534%50%
20.528%43%
21.522%37%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Utrechtwe expect 8.9, league average 9.4 · chance of over 9.5: 41%
Willem IIwe expect 9.4, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 35%
Referee: 18.5 fouls per match on average (25 matches in our data)−1.2 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 2.3 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.566%71%
2.539%48%
3.519%28%
4.58%14%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Utrechtwe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Willem IIwe expect 0.9, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 25%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Utrecht concede 2.6 goals per game
  • Willem II concede 2.3 goals per game
  • Utrecht: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Willem II: no win in 7 matches
  • Utrecht: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Willem II: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Utrecht

Willem II

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13Utrecht822414:258
18Willem II80267:232
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Utrecht vs Willem II?

Utrecht 3-1 Willem II (half time 0-0).

Did the Utrecht vs Willem II tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 2.5. The tip won.

See also