EkstraklasaMatchday 12
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%O2.549%55%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Jagiellonia1:2Wisla PlockL
- Wisla Plock0:1JagielloniaW
- Wisla Plock2:4JagielloniaW
- Jagiellonia1:1Wisla PlockD
- Jagiellonia0:1Wisla PlockL
Jagiellonia's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.7over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 4.0over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 4.0 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.8 : 0.9total 2.6Attack/defence1.8 : 1.1total 2.9
Jagiellonia : Wisla PlockMost likely scores
Model1-113%1-011%2-011%2-110%0-09%1-2—Attack/defence1-111%1-010%2-09%2-110%0-06%1-26%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-111%1-01-011%1-010%2-02-011%2-09%2-12-110%2-110%0-00-09%0-06%1-21-2—1-26%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 82%77% | 77% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%76% | 76% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73%67% | 67% |
| 1 – Jagiellonia win | 56%53% · Elo 62% | 53%· Elo 62% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51%45% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49%55% | 55% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 44%47% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27%33% | 33% |
| X – draw | 26%24% · Elo 22% | 24%· Elo 22% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%22% | 22% |
| 2 – Wisla Plock win | 18%23% · Elo 16% | 23%· Elo 16% |
Attack vs defence
Jagiellonia attack vs Wisla Plock defenceattack1552defence1485+67 pts to the attack
Wisla Plock attack vs Jagiellonia defenceattack1423defence1490−67 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.562%61%
8.549%52%
9.537%39%
10.526%24%
Each team on its own
Jagielloniawe expect 4.5, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 46%
Wisla Plockwe expect 4.1, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 57%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 23.6 in this match, 23.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.555%60%
23.549%53%
24.542%48%
25.536%42%
Each team on its own
Jagielloniawe expect 12.5, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 57%
Wisla Plockwe expect 11.1, league average 12.0 · chance of over 12.5: 33%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.570%75%
2.544%50%
3.523%32%
4.510%17%
Each team on its own
Jagielloniawe expect 1.5, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Wisla Plockwe expect 0.9, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 21%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:15 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Jagiellonia are the favourites. Chances: Jagiellonia win 56%, draw 26%, Wisla Plock win 18%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Jagiellonia 1.8, Wisla Plock 0.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
The Ekstraklasa match kicks off 25 October 2026, 13:45 (UK time).