EkstraklasaMatchday 11
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%55%O2.562%56%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Korona Kielce1:2Lech PoznanW
- Lech Poznan1:1Korona KielceD
- Lech Poznan2:0Korona KielceW
- Korona Kielce2:3Lech PoznanW
- Lech Poznan1:2Korona KielceL
Lech Poznan's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 9.7over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 4.0over 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 4.0 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.2 : 1.0total 3.2Attack/defence1.9 : 1.0total 2.9
Lech Poznan : Korona KielceMost likely scores
Market1-110%2-010%2-110%1-08%3-07%3-1—Attack/defence1-111%2-010%2-110%1-010%3-06%3-16%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%2-02-010%2-010%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-08%1-010%3-03-07%3-06%3-13-1—3-16%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 84%81% | 81% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 80%77% | 77% |
| 1 – Lech Poznan win | 64%58% · Elo 65% | 58%· Elo 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62%56% | 56% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 60%67% | 67% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%45% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40%33% | 33% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38%44% | 44% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 36%42% | 42% |
| X – draw | 20%23% · Elo 21% | 23%· Elo 21% |
| 2 – Korona Kielce win | 16%20% · Elo 14% | 20%· Elo 14% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Lech Poznan attack vs Korona Kielce defenceattack1627defence1526+101 pts to the attack
Korona Kielce attack vs Lech Poznan defenceattack1471defence1578−107 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.563%61%
8.551%52%
9.538%39%
10.527%24%
Each team on its own
Lech Poznanwe expect 5.2, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 57%
Korona Kielcewe expect 3.7, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 23.9 in this match, 23.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.557%60%
23.551%53%
24.544%48%
25.538%42%
Each team on its own
Lech Poznanwe expect 11.9, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 52%
Korona Kielcewe expect 12.0, league average 12.0 · chance of over 12.5: 42%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 2.7 in this match, 2.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.575%75%
2.551%50%
3.530%32%
4.515%17%
Each team on its own
Lech Poznanwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Korona Kielcewe expect 1.5, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Lech Poznan12 matches unbeaten at homeoverall: 2Went on 79%League 68%Model 84%Record 38
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lech Poznan score 2.3 goals per game
- Lech Poznan: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Lech Poznan: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Korona Kielce: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21:8 | 22 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12:12 | 15 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?
Lech Poznan are the favourites. Chances: Lech Poznan win 64%, draw 20%, Korona Kielce win 16%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?
Expected goals: 3.2 (Lech Poznan 2.2, Korona Kielce 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 62%. Most likely score: 2-0.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?
The chance that both teams score is 57%.
When is Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?
The Ekstraklasa match kicks off 18 October 2026, 16:30 (UK time).