EkstraklasaMatchday 12
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%O2.549%53%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Motor Lublin1:0ZaglebieW
- Zaglebie2:2Motor LublinD
- Motor Lublin1:0ZaglebieW
- Zaglebie1:2Motor LublinW
- Motor Lublin1:2ZaglebieL
Motor Lublin's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.4league 9.7under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.1league 4.0over 3.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 4.1 in this match, 4.0 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.4 : 1.2total 2.6Attack/defence1.5 : 1.3total 2.8
Motor Lublin : ZaglebieMost likely scores
Model1-114%2-19%1-09%0-09%1-28%0-1—2-0—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%0-0—1-28%0-17%2-07%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-114%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-09%1-09%0-00-09%0-0—1-21-28%1-28%0-10-1—0-17%2-02-0—2-07%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%77% | 77% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73%69% | 69% |
| 12 – no draw | 71%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 69%69% | 69% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 60%57% | 57% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51%47% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49%53% | 53% |
| 1 – Motor Lublin win | 40%43% · Elo 37% | 43%· Elo 37% |
| 2 – Zaglebie win | 31%31% · Elo 34% | 31%· Elo 34% |
| X – draw | 29%26% · Elo 29% | 26%· Elo 29% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27%31% | 31% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Motor Lublin attack vs Zaglebie defenceattack1482defence1499−17 pts to the attack
Zaglebie attack vs Motor Lublin defenceattack1456defence1444+12 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.561%61%
8.548%52%
9.535%39%
10.525%24%
Each team on its own
Motor Lublinwe expect 4.8, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 52%
Zaglebiewe expect 3.7, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 49%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 24.5 in this match, 23.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.561%60%
23.554%53%
24.548%48%
25.541%42%
Each team on its own
Motor Lublinwe expect 12.4, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 56%
Zaglebiewe expect 12.2, league average 12.0 · chance of over 12.5: 44%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 2.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.576%75%
2.552%50%
3.530%32%
4.515%17%
Each team on its own
Motor Lublinwe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Zaglebiewe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 31%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Motor Lublin matches average only 7.4 corners (league 9.7) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Zaglebie concede a lot late on: 10 of 23 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Motor Lublin: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Zaglebie: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Zaglebie | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 15 |
| 14 | Motor Lublin | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12:17 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Motor Lublin win 40%, draw 29%, Zaglebie win 31%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Motor Lublin 1.4, Zaglebie 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie?
The Ekstraklasa match kicks off 23 October 2026, 17:00 (UK time).