EkstraklasaMatchday 12
Widzew Lodz vs Gornik Z.: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%O2.541%44%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Widzew Lodz0:0Gornik Z.D
- Gornik Z.3:2Widzew LodzL
- Gornik Z.0:0Widzew LodzD
- Widzew Lodz0:2Gornik Z.L
- Widzew Lodz3:1Gornik Z.W
Widzew Lodz's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 9.7over 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.0over 3.5: 60%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.0 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.1 : 1.2total 2.3Attack/defence1.2 : 1.2total 2.5
Widzew Lodz : Gornik Z.Most likely scores
Model1-115%0-011%0-110%1-09%1-28%2-1—Attack/defence1-113%0-09%0-110%1-010%1-28%2-18%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-115%1-113%0-00-011%0-09%0-10-110%0-110%1-01-09%1-010%1-21-28%1-28%2-12-1—2-18%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 80%77% | 77% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 69%72% | 72% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 69%64% | 64% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 63%64% | 64% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59%56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41%44% | 44% |
| 2 – Gornik Z. win | 37%36% · Elo 43% | 36%· Elo 43% |
| 1 – Widzew Lodz win | 32%36% · Elo 29% | 36%· Elo 29% |
| X – draw | 31%28% · Elo 28% | 28%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 31%30% | 30% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Widzew Lodz attack vs Gornik Z. defenceattack1454defence1597−143 pts to the attack
Gornik Z. attack vs Widzew Lodz defenceattack1524defence1525−1 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 54%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 8.4 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.559%61%
8.546%52%
9.533%39%
10.523%24%
Each team on its own
Widzew Lodzwe expect 4.2, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 41%
Gornik Z.we expect 4.0, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 55%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 57%close to the league averageunder 43%over
We expect 24.8 in this match, 23.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.563%60%
23.557%53%
24.550%48%
25.544%42%
Each team on its own
Widzew Lodzwe expect 12.1, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 53%
Gornik Z.we expect 12.9, league average 12.0 · chance of over 12.5: 51%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 2.9 in this match, 2.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.579%75%
2.556%50%
3.534%32%
4.518%17%
Each team on its own
Widzew Lodzwe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Gornik Z.we expect 1.8, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Widzew Lodz matches average 12.2 corners (league 9.7) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Gornik Z.: 25 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Widzew Lodz: no win in 7 matches
- Widzew Lodz: only 9 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Widzew Lodz concede a lot late on: 9 of 22 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Gornik Z. concede a lot late on: 7 of 16 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Widzew Lodz: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Gornik Z.: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Z. | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19:9 | 25 |
| 13 | Widzew Lodz | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 14:15 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Widzew Lodz vs Gornik Z.?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Widzew Lodz win 32%, draw 31%, Gornik Z. win 37%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Widzew Lodz vs Gornik Z.?
Expected goals: 2.3 (Widzew Lodz 1.1, Gornik Z. 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 41%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Widzew Lodz vs Gornik Z.?
The Ekstraklasa match kicks off 23 October 2026, 19:30 (UK time).