EkstraklasaMatchday 12
Wisla vs Rakow: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%O2.559%59%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Rakow2:0WislaL
- Wisla1:2RakowL
- Wisla1:2RakowL
- Rakow0:0WislaD
- Rakow3:1WislaL
Wisla's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.7over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 4.0over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 4.0 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.8 : 1.3total 3.0Attack/defence1.6 : 1.4total 3.1
Wisla : RakowMost likely scores
Model1-112%2-110%1-27%2-07%1-07%2-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-19%1-28%2-06%1-07%2-26%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-111%2-12-110%2-19%1-21-27%1-28%2-02-07%2-06%1-01-07%1-07%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 73%67% | 67% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64%63% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59%59% | 59% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 53%57% | 57% |
| 1 – Wisla win | 47%43% · Elo 33% | 43%· Elo 33% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41%41% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36%37% | 37% |
| 2 – Rakow win | 27%33% · Elo 38% | 33%· Elo 38% |
| X – draw | 26%25% · Elo 29% | 25%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Wisla attack vs Rakow defenceattack1509defence1490+19 pts to the attack
Rakow attack vs Wisla defenceattack1530defence1456+74 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 62%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 9.7 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.574%61%
8.562%52%
9.550%39%
10.538%24%
Each team on its own
Wislawe expect 6.2, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 72%
Rakowwe expect 4.2, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 59%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 24.0 in this match, 23.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.558%60%
23.551%53%
24.545%48%
25.538%42%
Each team on its own
Wislawe expect 12.7, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 59%
Rakowwe expect 11.4, league average 12.0 · chance of over 12.5: 36%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 2.3 in this match, 2.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.566%75%
2.539%50%
3.520%32%
4.58%17%
Each team on its own
Wislawe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Rakowwe expect 1.0, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 27%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Rakow concede 2.5 goals per game
- Rakow: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Rakow: only 3 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 15 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Wisla: newly promoted
- Wisla: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Rakow: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wisla | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17:14 | 17 |
| 18 | Rakow | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13:25 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Wisla vs Rakow?
Wisla are the favourites. Chances: Wisla win 47%, draw 26%, Rakow win 27%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Wisla vs Rakow?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Wisla 1.8, Rakow 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Wisla vs Rakow?
The Ekstraklasa match kicks off 24 October 2026, 19:15 (UK time).