Liga PortugalMatchday 11
Famalicao vs Arouca: prediction, tips and stats
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1.4:1.0Pre-match
Our tips
Tip in 1d 21hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS53%47%O2.549%41%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.0H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Famalicao1:0AroucaW
- Arouca1:1FamalicaoD
- Arouca1:2FamalicaoW
- Famalicao0:0AroucaD
- Arouca3:2FamalicaoL
Famalicao's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
9.2league 9.3under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league
4.8league 4.7over 4.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 4.8 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.Referee
awaiting appointmentPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.1total 2.6Attack/defence1.4 : 1.0total 2.3
Famalicao : AroucaMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-010%0-08%2-19%2-08%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-013%0-010%2-19%2-09%0-19%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-013%0-00-08%0-010%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-08%2-09%0-10-1—0-19%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%68% | 68% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 74%74% | 74% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%72% | 72% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73%79% | 79% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 53%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53%47% | 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51%59% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49%41% | 41% |
| 1 – Famalicao win | 47%45% · Elo 44% | 45%· Elo 44% |
| Both teams to score: no | 47%53% | 53% |
| X – draw | 27%28% · Elo 28% | 28%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27%21% | 21% |
| 2 – Arouca win | 26%26% · Elo 27% | 26%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%32% | 32% |
Attack vs defence
Famalicao attack vs Arouca defenceattack1485defence14850 pts to the attack
Arouca attack vs Famalicao defenceattack1480defence1555−75 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 62%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 38%
We expect 7.8 in this match, 8.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.552%60%
8.538%46%
9.527%31%
10.518%21%
Each team on its own
Famalicaowe expect 4.1, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Aroucawe expect 3.5, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 70%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 30%
We expect 22.7 in this match, 25.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.536%55%
25.530%49%
26.525%41%
27.520%35%
Each team on its own
Famalicaowe expect 10.4, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 27%
Aroucawe expect 11.9, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 42%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.569%77%
2.543%49%
3.522%30%
4.510%18%
Each team on its own
Famalicaowe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Aroucawe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Arouca: 20 pts in the last 10 league matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Famalicao: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Arouca: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14:14 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Famalicao vs Arouca?
Famalicao are the favourites. Chances: Famalicao win 47%, draw 27%, Arouca win 26%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Famalicao 1.5, Arouca 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Arouca?
The chance that both teams score is 53%.
When is Famalicao vs Arouca?
The Liga Portugal match kicks off 6 November 2026, 20:45 (UK time).