Liga PortugalMatchday 8

Famalicao 1-4 Alverca: prediction, tips and result

·

Famalicao
0-10-02-21-14-0
1-4Full time(half time 1-1)
Alverca
1-03-11-21-11-3
Stadium:
Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Vila Nova de Famalicao
Referee:
Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Won69%

referee Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho averages 4.6 card points a match, league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Fouls – Famalicao: Under 12.5Won67%

    Famalicao: under 12.5 fouls in 6 of their last 7 league matches, Alverca's opponents committed under 12.5 in 7 of 7 (50% of league matches); 9.6 fouls a match, Alverca's opponents committed 9.3 on average, league average 12.8

  • Shots on Target – Alverca: Under 3.5Lost58%

    our numbers for Alverca: 3.3 shots on target against a league average of 3.8

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 3.5Lost36%

referee Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho averages 4.6 card points a match, league average 5.2; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloFamalicao170450%58%Draw28%24%Alverca160622%18%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%45%O2.547%41%|exp. goals 1.5 : 0.9both scored
H2Hlast 2 meetings
  1. Famalicao1:0AlvercaW
  2. Alverca1:0FamalicaoL
Famalicao's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss1.0 goals per match
too few to read anything into
Cornersleague corners9.2league 9.3under 9.5: 56%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.lost · ended 11
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.4league 4.8under 4.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.lost · ended 5
RefereeS. Jose Dos Santos Guelho−0.6 yellow cards vs average25 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)73%BTTS yes1:02:0coverageleague 66% · H2H 1/2covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.0total 2.6Attack/defence1.5 : 0.9total 2.3
Famalicao : Alverca
Most likely scores
Market1-011%1-113%2-010%0-09%2-19%0-1—Attack/defence1-014%1-113%2-010%0-010%2-19%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-011%1-014%1-11-113%1-113%2-02-010%2-010%0-00-09%0-010%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-18%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat78%78%78%
Under 3.5 goals75%80%80%
Over 1.5 goals73%67%67%
12 – no draw72%73%73%
Under 2.5 goals53%59%59%
1 – Famalicao win50%51% · Elo 58%51%· Elo 58%
X2 – away team avoid defeat50%50%50%
Both teams to score: yes50%45%45%
Both teams to score: no50%55%55%
Over 2.5 goals47%41%41%
X – draw28%28% · Elo 24%28%· Elo 24%
Under 1.5 goals27%33%33%
Over 3.5 goals25%20%20%
2 – Alverca win22%22% · Elo 18%22%· Elo 18%
Attack vs defence
Famalicao attack vs Alverca defenceattack1479defence1454+25 pts to the attack
Alverca attack vs Famalicao defenceattack1435defence1581−146 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 7.8 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.552%60%
8.539%46%
9.527%32%
10.518%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Famalicaowe expect 4.3, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Alvercawe expect 3.3, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 42%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 65%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 35%
We expect 23.5 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.542%56%
25.535%50%
26.529%42%
27.524%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Famalicaowe expect 11.1, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 33%
Alvercawe expect 12.3, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 45%
Referee: 26.6 fouls per match on average (20 matches in our data)−0.1 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.571%78%
2.545%51%
3.524%31%
4.511%18%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Famalicaowe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 30%
Alvercawe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 38%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form

Famalicao

Alverca

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Alverca832313:1211
13Famalicao814310:117
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Famalicao vs Alverca?

Famalicao 1-4 Alverca (half time 1-1).

Did the Famalicao vs Alverca tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also