Liga PortugalMatchday 9
Alverca vs Arouca: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%52%O2.549%47%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.2
H2Hlast 2 meetings
- Alverca2:1AroucaW
- Arouca1:0AlvercaL
Alverca's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss2.0 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners9.2league 9.3under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.8over 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.1total 2.6Attack/defence1.4 : 1.2total 2.6
Alverca : AroucaMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-010%2-19%0-1—0-08%2-08%1-2—Attack/defence1-113%1-010%2-19%0-19%0-08%2-0—1-28%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-010%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-19%0-00-08%0-08%2-02-08%2-0—1-21-2—1-28%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%72% | 72% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 71%68% | 68% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 56%60% | 60% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54%52% | 52% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51%53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: no | 46%48% | 48% |
| 1 – Alverca win | 44%40% · Elo 34% | 40%· Elo 34% |
| 2 – Arouca win | 29%32% · Elo 37% | 32%· Elo 37% |
| X – draw | 27%27% · Elo 29% | 27%· Elo 29% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27%25% | 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%28% | 28% |
Attack vs defence
Alverca attack vs Arouca defenceattack1455defence1468−13 pts to the attack
Arouca attack vs Alverca defenceattack1486defence1460+26 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.556%59%
8.543%46%
9.531%31%
10.521%21%
Each team on its own
Alvercawe expect 4.4, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 44%
Aroucawe expect 3.8, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 51%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 23.1 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.538%56%
25.532%50%
26.527%42%
27.522%36%
Each team on its own
Alvercawe expect 12.1, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 43%
Aroucawe expect 10.7, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 29%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 55%close to the league averageunder 45%over
We expect 2.9 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.578%78%
2.555%51%
3.533%31%
4.517%18%
Each team on its own
Alvercawe expect 1.5, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Aroucawe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Arouca: 20 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 12 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Alverca: 12 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Arouca: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:7 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:12 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
Alverca are the favourites. Chances: Alverca win 44%, draw 27%, Arouca win 29%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Alverca vs Arouca?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Alverca 1.5, Arouca 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Arouca?
The chance that both teams score is 54%.
When is Alverca vs Arouca?
The Liga Portugal match kicks off 24 October 2026, 18:00 (UK time).