Liga PortugalMatchday 9
Rio Ave vs Famalicao: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%50%O2.549%44%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Rio Ave0:0FamalicaoD
- Famalicao0:0Rio AveD
- Famalicao1:0Rio AveL
- Rio Ave1:1FamalicaoD
- Famalicao2:1Rio AveL
Rio Ave's record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses1.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.3under 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.4league 4.8under 4.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.0 : 1.6total 2.6Attack/defence1.1 : 1.3total 2.4
Rio Ave : FamalicaoMost likely scores
Market1-113%0-111%1-210%0-210%1-0—0-08%Attack/defence1-113%0-111%1-29%0-28%1-09%0-09%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%0-10-111%0-111%1-21-210%1-29%0-20-210%0-28%1-01-0—1-09%0-00-08%0-09%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 78%69% | 69% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%72% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74%70% | 70% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73%77% | 77% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52%50% | 50% |
| 2 – Famalicao win | 51%42% · Elo 43% | 42%· Elo 43% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51%56% | 56% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 50%59% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49%44% | 44% |
| Both teams to score: no | 48%50% | 50% |
| X – draw | 27%28% · Elo 29% | 28%· Elo 29% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27%23% | 23% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26%30% | 30% |
| 1 – Rio Ave win | 23%31% · Elo 29% | 31%· Elo 29% |
Attack vs defence
Rio Ave attack vs Famalicao defenceattack1435defence1561−126 pts to the attack
Famalicao attack vs Rio Ave defenceattack1474defence1385+89 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.553%59%
8.540%46%
9.528%31%
10.519%21%
Each team on its own
Rio Avewe expect 3.7, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 32%
Famalicaowe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 74%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 26%
We expect 22.1 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.532%56%
25.526%50%
26.521%42%
27.517%36%
Each team on its own
Rio Avewe expect 10.9, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 31%
Famalicaowe expect 10.8, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 30%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 58%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 42%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.568%78%
2.542%51%
3.522%31%
4.59%18%
Each team on its own
Rio Avewe expect 1.0, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 26%
Famalicaowe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Rio Ave concede 2.2 goals per game
- Rio Ave matches average only 3.2 cards (league 5.0) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Rio Ave: 14 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Famalicao: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:11 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8:17 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Rio Ave vs Famalicao?
Famalicao are the favourites. Chances: Rio Ave win 23%, draw 27%, Famalicao win 51%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Rio Ave vs Famalicao?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Rio Ave 1.0, Famalicao 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Rio Ave vs Famalicao?
The chance that both teams score is 52%.
When is Rio Ave vs Famalicao?
The Liga Portugal match kicks off 25 October 2026, 18:00 (UK time).