Liga PortugalMatchday 8

Maritimo 1-2 Porto: prediction, tips and result

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Maritimo
2-21-20-31-31-1
1-2Full time(half time 1-1)
Porto
3-14-12-13-02-0
Stadium:
Estadio do Maritimo, Funchal
Referee:
Joao Goncalves

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Match Result: PortoWon75%

Porto: 7 league wins in a row; won 7 of their last 7 league matches

Other tips

  • Cards – Porto (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Won59%

    Porto: under 2.5 card points in 6 of their last 7 league matches, Maritimo's opponents collected under 2.5 card points in 5 of 7 (52% of league matches); 0.9 card points a match, Maritimo's opponents collected 2.3 card points on average, league average 2.7; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

  • Fouls: Under 23.5Lost68%

    our numbers: 21.2 fouls against a league average of 25.5; referee Joao Goncalves averages 23.7 fouls a match, league average 25.5

  • Shots on Target – Porto: Over 3.5Won72%

    Porto: 7.1 shots on target a match, Maritimo's opponents had 4.9 on average, league average 3.8; over 3.5 shots on target in 7 of their last 7 league matches, Maritimo's opponents had over 3.5 in 6 of 7 (52% of league matches)

For the brave
Correct Score: 0:2Lost15%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloMaritimo14968%7%Draw16%14%Porto197976%79%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS39%49%O2.553%50%|exp. goals 0.9 : 1.8both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Maritimo0:2PortoL
  2. Porto5:1MaritimoL
  3. Porto2:1MaritimoL
  4. Maritimo1:1PortoD
  5. Maritimo1:2PortoL
Maritimo's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.2league 9.3under 9.5: 56%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.won · ended 8
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.8under 4.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 33%.won · ended 3
RefereeJ. Goncalves−0.2 yellow cards vs average34 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)69%BTTS no1:2coverageleague 59% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.6 : 2.2total 2.8Attack/defence0.9 : 1.8total 2.7
Maritimo : Porto
Most likely scores
Market0-215%0-113%1-18%0-311%1-29%0-0—Attack/defence0-211%0-112%1-111%0-37%1-210%0-07%
MarketAttack/defence0-20-215%0-211%0-10-113%0-112%1-11-18%1-111%0-30-311%0-37%1-21-29%1-210%0-00-0—0-07%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
X2 – away team avoid defeat92%82%82%
12 – no draw84%76%76%
Over 1.5 goals77%74%74%
Our tip: 2 – Porto win76%59% · Elo 79%59%· Elo 79%
Under 3.5 goals70%72%72%
Both teams to score: no61%51%51%
Over 2.5 goals53%50%50%
Under 2.5 goals47%50%50%
Both teams to score: yes39%49%49%
Over 3.5 goals30%28%28%
1X – home team avoid defeat24%42%42%
Under 1.5 goals23%26%26%
X – draw16%24% · Elo 14%24%· Elo 14%
1 – Maritimo win8%18% · Elo 7%18%· Elo 7%
Attack vs defence
Maritimo attack vs Porto defenceattack1417defence1672−255 pts to the attack
Porto attack vs Maritimo defenceattack1662defence1413+249 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.561%60%
8.548%47%
9.535%32%
10.525%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Maritimowe expect 3.5, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 27%
Portowe expect 5.0, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 72%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 79%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 21%
We expect 21.2 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.526%56%
25.521%50%
26.516%42%
27.513%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Maritimowe expect 11.4, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 36%
Portowe expect 11.5, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 37%
Referee: 23.7 fouls per match on average (25 matches in our data)−3.5 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.572%78%
2.547%52%
3.526%31%
4.512%19%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Maritimowe expect 0.9, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 24%
Portowe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 47%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Porto matches average only 3.1 cards (league 5.0) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Porto concede only 0.6 goals per game
  • Porto: 8 wins in a row
  • Maritimo: newly promoted
  • Maritimo: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Porto: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Maritimo

Porto

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Porto880020:424
12Maritimo82249:148
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Maritimo vs Porto?

Maritimo 1-2 Porto (half time 1-1).

Did the Maritimo vs Porto tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Match Result: Porto. The tip won.

See also