AllsvenskanMatchday 26
AIK vs Elfsborg: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 13d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%O2.555%51%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Elfsborg1:1AIKD
- Elfsborg0:3AIKW
- AIK2:0ElfsborgW
- AIK2:1ElfsborgW
- Elfsborg6:1AIKL
AIK's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 10.2under 10.5: 59%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.3league 3.3under 3.5: 59%Expected yellow cards: 3.3 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 8%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.5 : 1.5total 2.9Attack/defence1.4 : 1.3total 2.7
AIK : ElfsborgMost likely scores
Model1-112%1-08%2-18%1-28%0-18%0-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-09%2-19%1-28%0-18%0-07%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-08%1-09%2-12-18%2-19%1-21-28%1-28%0-10-18%0-18%0-00-0—0-07%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67%71% | 71% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 63%67% | 67% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 62%60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55%51% | 51% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45%49% | 49% |
| 1 – AIK win | 38%40% · Elo 36% | 40%· Elo 36% |
| 2 – Elfsborg win | 37%33% · Elo 38% | 33%· Elo 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 26% | 26%· Elo 26% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21%25% | 25% |
Attack vs defence
AIK attack vs Elfsborg defenceattack1509defence1508+1 pts to the attack
Elfsborg attack vs AIK defenceattack1523defence1475+48 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 57%close to the league averageunder 43%over
We expect 9.3 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.570%64%
8.557%53%
9.545%40%
10.533%29%
Each team on its own
AIKwe expect 4.2, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 41%
Elfsborgwe expect 5.2, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 58%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 58%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 42%
We expect 20.7 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.550%61%
21.542%54%
22.535%47%
23.529%38%
Each team on its own
AIKwe expect 11.0, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 53%
Elfsborgwe expect 9.7, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 38%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 2.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.570%66%
2.544%44%
3.524%25%
4.511%13%
Each team on its own
AIKwe expect 0.9, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 22%
Elfsborgwe expect 1.6, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 48%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- AIK concede 2.2 goals per game
- Elfsborg: 22 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- AIK played 3 days ago
- Elfsborg: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Elfsborg | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 35:22 | 40 |
| 9 | AIK | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 36:40 | 33 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AIK vs Elfsborg?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: AIK win 38%, draw 25%, Elfsborg win 37%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in AIK vs Elfsborg?
Expected goals: 2.9 (AIK 1.5, Elfsborg 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 55%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is AIK vs Elfsborg?
The Allsvenskan match kicks off 27 October 2026, 18:00 (UK time).