AllsvenskanMatchday 25
Sirius vs AIK: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 4hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%O2.568%60%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- AIK0:3SiriusW
- AIK2:1SiriusL
- Sirius3:1AIKW
- Sirius0:1AIKL
- AIK1:3SiriusW
Sirius's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 10.2under 10.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.3league 3.3under 3.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 3.3 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 8%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model2.1 : 1.4total 3.5Attack/defence1.9 : 1.2total 3.1
Sirius : AIKMost likely scores
Model1-19%2-19%1-0—2-07%3-17%2-27%1-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-08%2-08%3-16%2-2—1-26%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-19%1-111%2-12-19%2-110%1-01-0—1-08%2-02-07%2-08%3-13-17%3-16%2-22-27%2-2—1-21-2—1-26%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87%82% | 82% |
| 12 – no draw | 79%77% | 77% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 76%76% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68%60% | 60% |
| 1 – Sirius win | 55%53% · Elo 54% | 53%· Elo 54% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 54%62% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47%38% | 38% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 45%47% | 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32%40% | 40% |
| 2 – AIK win | 24%24% · Elo 23% | 24%· Elo 23% |
| X – draw | 21%23% · Elo 24% | 23%· Elo 24% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13%18% | 18% |
Attack vs defence
Sirius attack vs AIK defenceattack1627defence1475+152 pts to the attack
AIK attack vs Sirius defenceattack1509defence1488+21 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 9.5 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.572%64%
8.560%53%
9.547%40%
10.536%29%
Each team on its own
Siriuswe expect 5.7, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 65%
AIKwe expect 4.1, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 40%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 22.3 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.561%61%
21.554%54%
22.547%47%
23.540%38%
Each team on its own
Siriuswe expect 11.0, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 53%
AIKwe expect 11.4, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 57%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 47%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 2.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.577%66%
2.553%44%
3.531%25%
4.516%13%
Each team on its own
Siriuswe expect 1.5, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
AIKwe expect 1.3, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- AIK concede 2.2 goals per game
- Sirius: 4 wins in a row
- Sirius: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- AIK: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 53:28 | 54 |
| 9 | AIK | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 36:40 | 33 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sirius vs AIK?
Sirius are the favourites. Chances: Sirius win 55%, draw 21%, AIK win 24%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Sirius vs AIK?
Expected goals: 3.5 (Sirius 2.1, AIK 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 68%. Most likely score: 2-1.
When is Sirius vs AIK?
The Allsvenskan match kicks off 24 October 2026, 14:00 (UK time).