Challenge LeagueMatchday 11
Lausanne Ouchy vs Xamax: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%O2.558%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Xamax1:2Lausanne OuchyW
- Lausanne Ouchy2:1XamaxW
- Xamax3:0Lausanne OuchyL
- Lausanne Ouchy3:0XamaxW
- Xamax0:2Lausanne OuchyW
Lausanne Ouchy's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 9.2under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.4league 4.4under 4.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.9 : 1.1total 3.0Attack/defence1.9 : 1.1total 3.0
Lausanne Ouchy : XamaxMost likely scores
Model1-112%2-110%1-09%2-09%0-07%3-1—3-0—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-09%2-09%0-0—3-16%3-06%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-09%1-09%2-02-09%2-09%0-00-07%0-0—3-13-1—3-16%3-03-0—3-06%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 80%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%77% | 77% |
| 1 – Lausanne Ouchy win | 55%57% · Elo 54% | 57%· Elo 54% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 45%43% | 43% |
| X – draw | 25%23% · Elo 25% | 23%· Elo 25% |
| 2 – Xamax win | 20%21% · Elo 21% | 21%· Elo 21% |
Attack vs defence
Lausanne Ouchy attack vs Xamax defenceattack1558defence1474+84 pts to the attack
Xamax attack vs Lausanne Ouchy defenceattack1492defence1622−130 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.561%64%
8.548%52%
9.535%42%
10.525%32%
Each team on its own
Lausanne Ouchywe expect 5.0, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 54%
Xamaxwe expect 3.4, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 26%
Foulsleague average
Over 24.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 26.8 in this match, 24.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.569%52%
24.563%46%
25.556%40%
26.550%32%
Each team on its own
Lausanne Ouchywe expect 13.3, league average 12.3 · chance of over 12.5: 56%
Xamaxwe expect 13.8, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 60%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 3.1 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.580%72%
2.558%44%
3.536%28%
4.520%18%
Each team on its own
Lausanne Ouchywe expect 1.6, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Xamaxwe expect 1.5, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Lausanne Ouchy5 clean sheets in a rowat home: 42nd longest in the league since 2003/04Went on 37%League 28%
- Lausanne Ouchy14 matches unbeatenat home: 6Went on 81%League 70%Model 80%Record 31
- Lausanne Ouchy6 wins in a row at homeoverall: 1Went on 57%League 44%Model 55%Record 12
- Xamax7 matches in a row over 2.5 goalsaway: 3Went on 59%League 60%Record 17
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Xamax: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Lausanne Ouchy concede only 0.3 goals per game
- Lausanne Ouchy: unbeaten in 14 matches
- Lausanne Ouchy: 24 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 18 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Lausanne Ouchy: 14 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Xamax: 14 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lausanne Ouchy | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20:3 | 24 |
| 5 | Xamax | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15:17 | 15 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lausanne Ouchy vs Xamax?
Lausanne Ouchy are the favourites. Chances: Lausanne Ouchy win 55%, draw 25%, Xamax win 20%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Lausanne Ouchy vs Xamax?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Lausanne Ouchy 1.9, Xamax 1.1). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Lausanne Ouchy vs Xamax?
The Challenge League match kicks off 23 October 2026, 18:30 (UK time).