Challenge LeagueMatchday 11
Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%O2.560%|exp. goals 2.1 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Stade Nyonnais2:2WinterthurD
- Winterthur2:1Stade NyonnaisW
- Stade Nyonnais0:2WinterthurW
- Winterthur0:0Stade NyonnaisD
- Stade Nyonnais3:3WinterthurD
Winterthur's record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.4league 9.2under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.4under 4.5: 59%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model2.4 : 0.8total 3.1Attack/defence2.1 : 1.1total 3.1
Winterthur : Stade NyonnaisMost likely scores
Model2-012%1-19%2-19%3-010%1-09%3-1—Attack/defence2-09%1-110%2-110%3-06%1-09%3-17%
ModelAttack/defence2-02-012%2-09%1-11-19%1-110%2-12-19%2-110%3-03-010%3-06%1-01-09%1-09%3-13-1—3-17%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 91%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 82%78% | 78% |
| 1 – Winterthur win | 73%60% · Elo 69% | 60%· Elo 69% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 28%40% | 40% |
| X – draw | 18%22% · Elo 19% | 22%· Elo 19% |
| 2 – Stade Nyonnais win | 9%19% · Elo 13% | 19%· Elo 13% |
Attack vs defence
Winterthur attack vs Stade Nyonnais defenceattack1530defence1410+120 pts to the attack
Stade Nyonnais attack vs Winterthur defenceattack1370defence1507−137 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunder 44%over
We expect 9.2 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.568%64%
8.556%52%
9.543%42%
10.532%32%
Each team on its own
Winterthurwe expect 6.1, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 70%
Stade Nyonnaiswe expect 3.4, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 26%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 24.0 in this match, 24.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.551%52%
24.545%46%
25.538%40%
26.532%32%
Each team on its own
Winterthurwe expect 13.0, league average 12.3 · chance of over 12.5: 53%
Stade Nyonnaiswe expect 10.9, league average 12.5 · chance of over 12.5: 31%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 2.9 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.579%72%
2.556%44%
3.534%28%
4.518%18%
Each team on its own
Winterthurwe expect 2.0, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 58%
Stade Nyonnaiswe expect 0.9, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 24%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Stade Nyonnais9 defeats in a row awayWent on 58%League 44%Model 73%Record 14
- Stade Nyonnais16 matches without a win awayWent on 80%League 70%Model 91%Record 26
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Stade Nyonnais concede 2.4 goals per game
- Stade Nyonnais: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Winterthur: newly promoted
- Winterthur: 14 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Stade Nyonnais: 14 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Winterthur | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 19:11 | 18 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8:24 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais?
Winterthur are the favourites. Chances: Winterthur win 73%, draw 18%, Stade Nyonnais win 9%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Winterthur 2.4, Stade Nyonnais 0.8). Most likely score: 2-0.
When is Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais?
The Challenge League match kicks off 23 October 2026, 19:15 (UK time).