Super LeagueMatchday 11
Thun vs Lugano: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS66%66%O2.570%64%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.8
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Thun0:1LuganoL
- Lugano1:0ThunL
- Thun0:1LuganoL
- Lugano1:2ThunW
- Lugano1:1ThunD
Thun's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.3under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.4league 4.5under 4.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.5 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 26%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 2.3total 3.6Attack/defence1.5 : 1.8total 3.3
Thun : LuganoMost likely scores
Market1-19%1-29%2-1—0-27%1-37%2-26%0-1—Attack/defence1-110%1-29%2-18%0-26%1-3—2-27%0-16%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-110%1-21-29%1-29%2-12-1—2-18%0-20-27%0-26%1-31-37%1-3—2-22-26%2-27%0-10-1—0-16%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%84% | 84% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 79%67% | 67% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%77% | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70%64% | 64% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66%66% | 66% |
| 2 – Lugano win | 58%43% · Elo 49% | 43%· Elo 49% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52%58% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48%42% | 42% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 41%57% | 57% |
| Both teams to score: no | 34%35% | 35% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30%36% | 36% |
| X – draw | 21%23% · Elo 27% | 23%· Elo 27% |
| 1 – Thun win | 20%34% · Elo 25% | 34%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%16% | 16% |
Attack vs defence
Thun attack vs Lugano defenceattack1522defence1614−92 pts to the attack
Lugano attack vs Thun defenceattack1548defence1440+108 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 9.8 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.563%64%
9.551%48%
10.539%39%
11.529%26%
Each team on its own
Thunwe expect 4.3, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 27%
Luganowe expect 5.4, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 61%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 50%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 50%
We expect 23.8 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.557%51%
23.550%45%
24.543%41%
25.537%37%
Each team on its own
Thunwe expect 12.2, league average 11.2 · chance of over 11.5: 55%
Luganowe expect 11.6, league average 12.1 · chance of over 12.5: 38%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 2.7 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.575%80%
2.551%54%
3.529%33%
4.514%15%
Each team on its own
Thunwe expect 1.5, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Luganowe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Lugano12 matches unbeatenaway: 9Went on 78%League 57%Model 79%Record 28
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Thun concede 2.7 goals per game
- Lugano score 3.1 goals per game
- Lugano: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Thun: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Lugano: unbeaten in 12 matches
- Lugano: 28 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 17 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Thun: 0 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Lugano: 0 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 31:7 | 28 |
| 9 | Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 17:27 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Thun vs Lugano?
Lugano are the favourites. Chances: Thun win 20%, draw 21%, Lugano win 58%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Thun vs Lugano?
Expected goals: 3.6 (Thun 1.3, Lugano 2.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 70%. Most likely score: 1-2.
Will both teams score in Thun vs Lugano?
The chance that both teams score is 66%.
When is Thun vs Lugano?
The Super League match kicks off 25 October 2026, 13:00 (UK time).