Super LeagueMatchday 10
Lugano 4-0 Luzern: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- AIL Arena, Lugano
- Referee:
- Anojen Kanagasingam
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Total Goals: Over 2.5Won71%
over 2.5 goals in 8 of the hosts' last 9 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 9 (66% of league matches)
For the brave
Total Goals: Over 3.5Won49%
over 3.5 goals in 6 of the hosts' last 9 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 9 (41% of league matches)
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS68%64%O2.571%66%|exp. goals 2.1 : 1.3not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Lugano1:3LuzernL
- Luzern2:5LuganoW
- Lugano2:0LuzernW
- Luzern0:2LuganoW
- Lugano2:0LuzernW
Lugano's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 10.3under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.3 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 15
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.5over 4.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.5 on average in the league.In this league 48% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.won · ended 5
RefereeA. Kanagasingam+0.5 yellow cards vs average29 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)72%11:12:2coverageleague 62% · H2H 4/5covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.2 : 1.4total 3.6Attack/defence2.1 : 1.3total 3.4
Lugano : LuzernMost likely scores
Market2-19%1-19%2-07%3-17%1-0—2-26%Attack/defence2-110%1-19%2-07%3-17%1-07%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence2-12-19%2-110%1-11-19%1-19%2-02-07%2-07%3-13-17%3-17%1-01-0—1-07%2-22-26%2-26%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%85% | 85% |
| 12 – no draw | 79%78% | 78% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 78%76% | 76% |
| Our tip: Over 2.5 goals | 71%66% | 66% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68%64% | 64% |
| 1 – Lugano win | 56%55% · Elo 57% | 55%· Elo 57% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 51%56% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49%44% | 44% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 45%45% | 45% |
| Both teams to score: no | 32%36% | 36% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29%34% | 34% |
| 2 – Luzern win | 23%24% · Elo 19% | 24%· Elo 19% |
| X – draw | 22%22% · Elo 24% | 22%· Elo 24% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%15% | 15% |
Attack vs defence
Lugano attack vs Luzern defenceattack1537defence1468+69 pts to the attack
Luzern attack vs Lugano defenceattack1552defence1613−61 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 10.2 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.567%65%
9.556%48%
10.544%40%
11.533%26%
Each team on its own
Luganowe expect 6.6, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 62%
Luzernwe expect 4.0, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 38%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 23.6 in this match, 23.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.555%51%
23.549%45%
24.542%41%
25.536%38%
Each team on its own
Luganowe expect 9.9, league average 11.3 · chance of over 11.5: 30%
Luzernwe expect 11.9, league average 12.2 · chance of over 12.5: 42%
Referee: 24.3 fouls per match on average (14 matches in our data)+3.5 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 2.7 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.575%80%
2.551%54%
3.530%33%
4.515%15%
Each team on its own
Luganowe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Luzernwe expect 1.5, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lugano score 3.1 goals per game
- Lugano: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Luzern: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Lugano: unbeaten in 11 matches
- Lugano: 28 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 17 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Lugano: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Luzern: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 31:7 | 28 |
| 8 | Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17:22 | 12 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Lugano vs Luzern?
Lugano 4-0 Luzern (half time 1-0).
Did the Lugano vs Luzern tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 2.5. The tip won.