Atlanta Utd vs Chicago Fire: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 19hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%O2.559%54%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Chicago Fire1:0Atlanta UtdL
- Atlanta Utd2:2Chicago FireD
- Chicago Fire2:1Atlanta UtdL
- Chicago Fire0:0Atlanta UtdD
- Atlanta Utd3:0Chicago FireW
Atlanta Utd's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 10.0under 10.5: 60%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.1league 4.1under 4.5: 62%Expected yellow cards: 4.1 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.5 : 1.6total 3.1Attack/defence1.4 : 1.5total 2.9
Atlanta Utd : Chicago FireMost likely scores
Model1-111%1-29%2-18%0-17%1-0—2-26%0-2—Attack/defence1-112%1-29%2-18%0-18%1-08%2-2—0-26%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-21-29%1-29%2-12-18%2-18%0-10-17%0-18%1-01-0—1-08%2-22-26%2-2—0-20-2—0-26%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 64%65% | 65% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63%68% | 68% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 61%61% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59%54% | 54% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41%46% | 46% |
| 2 – Chicago Fire win | 39%39% · Elo 45% | 39%· Elo 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37%32% | 32% |
| 1 – Atlanta Utd win | 36%35% · Elo 28% | 35%· Elo 28% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 27% | 26%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Atlanta Utd attack vs Chicago Fire defenceattack1400defence1513−113 pts to the attack
Chicago Fire attack vs Atlanta Utd defenceattack1565defence1490+75 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 65%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 35%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.548%55%
9.535%44%
10.525%33%
11.516%25%
Each team on its own
Atlanta Utdwe expect 4.4, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 28%
Chicago Firewe expect 3.7, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 32%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 21.1 in this match, 21.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.552%53%
21.545%46%
22.538%40%
23.532%35%
Each team on its own
Atlanta Utdwe expect 10.2, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 44%
Chicago Firewe expect 10.9, league average 10.5 · chance of over 10.5: 52%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 61%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 39%over
We expect 4.3 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.579%59%
3.561%39%
4.543%20%
5.526%11%
Each team on its own
Atlanta Utdwe expect 2.7, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 74%
Chicago Firewe expect 1.7, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 51%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 51:40 | 48 |
| 14 | Atlanta Utd | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 33:48 | 27 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlanta Utd vs Chicago Fire?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Atlanta Utd win 36%, draw 25%, Chicago Fire win 39%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Atlanta Utd vs Chicago Fire?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Atlanta Utd 1.5, Chicago Fire 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Atlanta Utd vs Chicago Fire?
The MLS match kicks off 25 October 2026, 00:30 (UK time).